why is France one of the only EU countries to be opposed to this free trade agreement?

Farmers' anger is growing in France against the future trade agreement between Mercosur and the European Union (EU). Demonstrations and blockades have been organized since Monday, November 18, almost everywhere in France, against this text negotiated by the European Commission with Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia. Faced with the fed up of the agricultural sector, the entire political class, in an extremely rare occurrence, unanimously denounces the project: on the left and on the right, at the Elysée as well as within the government. Nearly 600 French parliamentarians even wrote to the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen on November 12 to ask her to abandon the negotiations. The letter has so far remained unanswered. Because on the European scene, France appears very isolated in this issue. Despite some doubts, none of the 26 other EU member countries shows such direct opposition.

Some countries are still worried about the consequences of this agreement, which notably proposes to establish additional quotas for meat imports from South America. “Austria was rather opposed to the agreement, but its position could change after the last legislative elections [remportées par l’extrême droite]“explain Marie Krpata, researcher at the Committee for the Study of Franco-German Relations of the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “This was also the case for Ireland, for environmental reasons, but that is no longer really the case”continues the expert. Ireland had initially rallied to the French position, demanding more guarantees, but the legislative elections, scheduled for November 29, have made Dublin's position more vague.

To hope to prevent the adoption of the text by the European Union, France must imperatively bring together a blocking minority, as trade issues are not subject to the rule of unanimity. Paris must therefore bring together at least four countries representing at least 35% of the EU population. Could Italy, with nearly 59 million inhabitants, become an ally? Italian Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida spoke out Monday against the plan requiring Mercosur farmers to be subject to the same “obligations” than those of the EU. But within the transalpine government, his opinion is not shared by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani. “We are favorable in principle to an agreement with Mercosur”he said, a few hours after his colleague, from Brussels.

That leaves Poland, which has more than 36 million citizens. The Ministry of Agriculture expressed its “serious reservations” with regard to a project and one of the main agricultural organizations, Rural Solidarity, called on Monday the head of government, Donald Tusk, to go further and to “to block”. “The country has a large agricultural sector and is already under pressure from the import of Ukrainian agricultural goods: Poland could seek to renegotiate certain aspects”relieves Elvira Fabryspecialist in European issues. However, a veto from Warsaw is not guaranteed.

“Poland is certainly concerned about its agriculture, but it also has interests to defend on the industrial side, with sectors awaiting this agreement, such as its automobile sector, which needs new outlets.”

Elvire Fabry, researcher at the Jacques-Delors Institute

at franceinfo

Enough to give the Polish government pause, especially since agriculture is only one aspect of the future agreement with Mercosur, which concerns entire sections of the European economy.

France must also count on the countries which ardently defend the draft agreement and which have influence on the European scene. This is the case of Spain, where the government of socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez came out in favor of the agreement, despite the fears of the agricultural sector. An opinion shared by Germany. “The economic situation in the country is very delicate, with a second year of recession and industries which have been very impacted by the war in Ukraine”recalls Marie Krpata.

A trade deal with Latin American countries could allow Germany “to diversify its sources of supply”particularly in rare ores, but also offer “new commercial opportunities” to its businesses, specifies the researcher. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, whose government coalition was shattered, even made signing the agreement a priority, while early elections should be called at the start of the year. This desire is shared by the entire political field across the Rhine, explains Marie Krpata.

“While in France the EU is often likened to a zone of unbridled free trade, where there are inevitably losers, this is not the case in Germany. The country perceives trade agreements as a sign that the multilateralism works.”

Marie Krpata, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations

at franceinfo

The European Commission, for its part, believes that the agreement comes at the right time, as the Old Continent's economy is stagnating and future American President Donald Trump has promised to relaunch trade wars, including with the EU.

Basically, it is only France which displays such strong opposition to the future agreement, reinforced by the political unanimity around the issue. Several factors explain this situation. First there is “the attachment of the French to their agriculture and their food, to the small size of our farms”underlines Elvira Fabry, who also notes “strong empathy in the face of farmers’ difficulties”. The agricultural crisis at the start of 2024 has also left its mark politically. “Before the European elections, Emmanuel Macron promised not to sign the agreement without the implementation of mirror clauses”reminds Marie Krpata.

Since then, the subject has remained flammable, as shown by the new demonstrations by farmers. The tensions are such “that there is a not very courageous political alignment and recovery games”judge Elvira Fabry, who regrets not seeing a debate on Mercosur “which takes into account all the interests at stake and in particular other sectors which also have difficulties”. All the more “that there are economic reasons for France to be for it”estimates Marie Krpata, particularly for the defense sector “very competitive”.

The French “no” in the home stretch of the negotiations also risks annoying France's European partners, even if Emmanuel Macron and Michel Barnier have said they are open to a revised version of the text. “THE other member states will certainly move forward without it, because they are fed up with Paris' attitude.”scathed thus Jean-Luc Demarty, former Director General of Agriculture then Foreign Trade at the European Commission, with the Parisian. “There is certainly a incomprehension of other European countries regarding the French positioning, who believe that Paris is slowing down a dynamic on Mercosur initiated at the end of 2023″emphasizes for his part Marie Krpata. Enough to weaken France a little more at the European level, while it is already weakened by the turmoil of its internal politics.