Can France really block the treaty between the European Union and Mercosur?

Agricultural anger is once again expressed against the treaty between the European Union and Mercosur. The majority union alliance FNSEA-JA launched a new cycle of agricultural mobilization this Monday. In their sights: this proposed free trade agreement between the EU and several South American countries.

“We will continue to oppose” this treaty, Emmanuel Macron tried to reassure on Sunday, traveling to Argentina before the G20. But can France really block a process that Europe would like to complete by the end of the year?

What is this EU-Mercosur treaty?

This sprawling free trade treaty, negotiated for more than twenty years with the Mercosur countries (short for the “southern common market” including Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia), could be finalized before the end of the year. “It would be the most important treaty concluded by the European Union in terms of volumes (between 40 and 45 billion euros of imports and exports) and people concerned (more than 700 million)”, recalls Olivier Costa , CNRS research director at CEVIPOF.

The text notably provides for import quotas into Europe without customs duties or at reduced rates for beef, poultry, sugar, corn and even ethanol. In exchange, the EU could export its cars, machinery or pharmaceutical products more easily. “This massive treaty comes at the right time for many exporting countries, worried by the protectionism promised by Donald Trump and Chinese pressure. They see a way to find new outlets, particularly for the automobile industry,” adds the specialist in European issues.

Why is France opposed to it?

There is in France – and this is rare enough to underline it – a form of consensus in opposition to the treaty. A very large majority of the political class fears that French agriculture will suffer from unfair competition from products not subject to the stricter environmental and health standards in force in Europe. No less than 600 French parliamentarians sent a letter last week to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, to reiterate their opposition. In the wake of the Head of State, Michel Barnier also expressed his “concern to see a free trade treaty causing the destruction of entire sections of our agriculture”.

“The treaty would be positive for the French luxury or wine and spirits sectors. But agriculture has always benefited from particular attention from the political class,” notes Olivier Costa. Emmanuel Macron requested in particular “substantial respect for the Paris Agreements (on the climate), mirror clauses and the protection of the interests of European industries and farmers”.

Can France block the finalization of the treaty?

The European Commission is the sole negotiator of trade agreements. Pressed by Spain and Germany in particular, Ursula von der Leyen affirmed on Sunday that the negotiations were “in the final stretch” before a signature, which could take place during the Mercosur summit on December 5 and 6 in Uruguay. Could it be done without France? “To validate the treaty, a unanimous vote by the Council, a ratification by the European Parliament and a ratification by the 27 Member States of the EU are then necessary, because the overall text also contains non-commercial provisions which encroach on national skills,” explains Olivier Costa.

The Commission could therefore choose a circuitous route: split the text into two parts. The strictly commercial aspect (at the heart of the controversies) could then be adopted more easily. “The Commission would then only need a qualified majority, or at least fifteen countries, representing 65% of the European population. France could no longer use its right of veto,” adds the researcher.

So what could France do?

From this perspective, France should then find allies, who represent at least 35% of the European population, to block the text. “There is intense diplomatic work being done today,” admitted Annie Genevard on France Bleu Besançon this Monday. The Minister of Agriculture mentioned ongoing or upcoming discussions with the Netherlands, Italy and Poland. “We are striving to form a veto minority on this agreement which is not a good agreement,” she confirmed.

“Emmanuel Macron cannot say that he is doing nothing, but France is in reality relatively isolated on this issue. It is also not helped by the internal political situation, with a Barnier government on borrowed time, which weakens it on the European scene,” analyzes Olivier Costa. In the event of failure, France would bring its last hopes to the level of the European Parliament, which will also have to ratify the controversial treaty for it to be applied.