France is preparing to break a new export record

The year 2022 seems far away, this catastrophic vintage for France, which had to import more electricity than it had exported for the first time in more than forty years. The country has now regained its rank as the leading electricity exporter in Europe. A largely low-carbon energy, therefore effective against global warming, mainly thanks to nuclear and hydraulic power.

Barring an unlikely reversal of the situation, France is even preparing to beat its own record in this area. Since the start of the year, despite marginal imports for peak consumption, it has already exported a net balance of 78 terawatt hours (TWh); count communicated, Wednesday, November 13, by the French manager of the electricity transmission network, RTE. This is more than the annual record of 2002, which was around 77 TWh.

And again, the total is still expected to increase between now and December 31. According to the manager's forecasts, and subject to weather conditions likely to affect heating needs, or even wind production, it could end with a net balance of around 85 TWh. This must be seen as proof that today “ French low-carbon production […] is very competitive on the European markets and that, as soon as it is available, it is called “according to Thomas Veyrenc, general director in charge of economy, strategy and finance at RTE.

Voluntary or forced sobriety

On November 7, EDF put forward an even higher projection: according to the operator of the nuclear park and the main national hydraulic operator, the country could record 90 TWh of net exports at the end of the financial year. Knowing that, over the whole of 2023, France produced nearly 495 TWh and exported 50.

How, then, can we explain the potential record for 2024? It is based on both increasing production and relatively stagnant consumption compared to 2023. Despite their “positive side”the export figures mean that “electrification and therefore the decarbonization of uses are not progressing or are progressing very little in the country”thus tempers Mathias Laffont, deputy general delegate of the French Electricity Union.

Taking into account weather variations, annual consumption should end the year around 450 TWh, more or less as in 2023. This projection above all confirms a drop of around 6% compared to the average for the period 2014-2019 – a trend also observable in “neighboring countries”underlines EDF. It is difficult, however, to gauge precisely the reasons for such a decline. Because sobriety can be voluntary… or imposed, when energy prices skyrocket and become dissuasive. For industrial customers, it can be “a sign of a slowdown in the economic situation”notes Christophe Bouneau, professor of economic history at Bordeaux-Montaigne University.

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