Fictitious blackout in the Netherlands: is Belgium at risk?

A fictional program in the Netherlands has highlighted the effects of a blackout, raising questions about the risk to Belgium. Is the country better prepared?

In the Netherlands, the public channel broadcast a program simulating a blackout paralyzing a large part of the country. Like “Bye Bye Belgium,” it is a fiction. After a few minutes, a banner warned: “Attention! These events are not real, but show a realistic picture of the consequences of a major power outage. »

In this “live” broadcast, viewers were able to follow in real time the repercussions of a widespread power cut. Regular TV news anchors reported phone network outages, looting, and hospitals forced to run on diesel generators. Experts spoke in the studio, while journalists broadcast “live” reports from various points in the country.

The aim was to raise awareness among citizens of the possibility of such a scenario, with the show’s tagline: “It’s not a question of if, but when.” » But is this scenario credible for Belgium?

What are the chances of such a catastrophe in Belgium?

Many people don’t realize just how much would stop working if the power goes out. A blackout refers to a large-scale total or partial power outage, affecting all or part of the country. This means no more light, no more heating, no more telephone or internet. But also the shutdown of transport and medical infrastructure.

This phenomenon can be caused by a demand for electricity exceeding available production, a major outage in the distribution network, or exceptional circumstances (such as storms or cyberattacks). In Belgium, the risk of blackouts is particularly worrying in winter, when demand for electricity is high and some infrastructure may fail.

This risk is also accentuated by the aging of nuclear power plants, an important source of electricity for the country. In recent years, the gradual closure of nuclear reactors and delays in the development of alternatives such as renewable energies have posed challenges to the energy system.

Fortunately, Belgium is less vulnerable than the Netherlands. On August 4, 1982, a major blackout affected Belgium following an explosion caused by a technical error in a power station. Since then, the government, supported by high voltage network operators (like Elia) and distribution operators (like Sibelga), has taken measures to avoid the repetition of such a situation.

Preventive measures in Belgium

Among the main preventive measures are:

1. The load shedding plan : a planned procedure to temporarily cut off electricity in certain areas for three to four hours. This action allows power plants to restore balance and avoid widespread blackout.
2. Additional electricity purchases : by importing electricity from neighboring countries to fill a temporary shortage.
3. Raising awareness about reducing consumption : campaigns to encourage the population and businesses to reduce their consumption during critical periods, particularly during periods of intense cold.

These measures contribute to the robustness of the Belgian energy network. This network is also strongly interconnected with neighboring countries, which can send part of their overproduction to Belgium. The possibility of a blackout is therefore very low in Belgium, as it would take a series of major incidents to destabilize the system.

An extreme example would be a simultaneous failure of the Doel power plant, a foreign connection line and an offshore wind farm, specifies the VRT. Another potential scenario could be an outage of a specific grid, followed by overproduction of energy by wind turbines, which could unbalance the entire grid. This is not science fiction: a similar incident occurred in Germany in 2006, and since then it has been possible to shut down all wind farms remotely if necessary. With the increase in the number of solar panels on private roofs, some are also wondering whether we should not be able to deactivate them collectively if necessary.

What to do in the event of a blackout?

In the event of a blackout, it is advisable to have candles and a flashlight close at hand. But above all you have to stay calm. The outage should not last very long, because the Belgian network can be restored by relying on the electricity networks of neighboring countries. According to forecasts, the first homes could regain electricity after 4 hours, and the last after 8 hours. If the blackout spread to neighboring countries, electricity could return between 10 and 24 hours after the incident.