How France plans to scrap the agreement with Mercosur

Michel Barnier will try in Brussels this Wednesday to use all his European weight to defend not only his budget, but also French farmers, who are up against the proposed trade agreement with Mercosur.

The European Union seems determined to sign a free trade agreement with the Latin American Mercosur countries by the end of the year, to the great dismay of France, which still refuses it “as is”. Michel Barnier, former European Commissioner and Brexit negotiator, will meet this Wednesday the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, who is part of the same family (EPP, right) as him in the European Parliament.

The purpose of this trip is above all to defend in Brussels its draft budget for 2025 which provides for 60 billion euros in savings in order to begin to bring France back into the European lead. France is the subject of an EU procedure for excessive deficit, with six other countries having exceeded the 3% mark set by the Stability Pact last year. Paris intends to reduce France's public deficit to 2.8% of GDP in 2029, compared to 6.1% in 2024.

“France says no”

But Michel Barnier intends to reaffirm France's opposition to the free trade agreement negotiated between the EU and the Mercosur countries, which could once again inflame the French countryside. More than 600 French parliamentarians sent a letter to this effect to Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday.

For France, “Mercosur, as it stands, is not an acceptable treaty”, also recalled French President Emmanuel Macron.

“France says no and France is not alone in this refusal of Mercosur. What we must obtain is enough to exercise our veto at the European level” by rallying “as many countries” as possible from the EU , explained French Minister of Agriculture Annie Gennevard on Monday.

Indeed, France alone can do nothing. To block the decision, it must bring together a blocking minority within the Council, which brings together EU member states. However, nothing is less certain. Germany and Spain are pushing with all their weight. However, although Poland or Austria have regularly expressed their opposition, this is insufficient. However, some in Brussels want to believe it, judging that countries like Italy, Ireland or the Netherlands can still tip the scales.

“The confidence of the French for Europe”

The agreement must also be ratified by the European Parliament. Again, no certainty. Opposition to the Mercosur agreement, shared by the overwhelming majority of French MEPs, all political tendencies combined, is in the minority, according to one of them. For others, this is not the case, because MEPs from the left and a large part of the right are opposed to the agreement.

European farmers, many of them from France, are demonstrating in Brussels on Wednesday to make their voices heard.

“If the ratification of the treaty were to take place against the advice of France, it would open a breach in the confidence that the French have in Europe,” warned Sophie Primas, French minister responsible for foreign trade.

Paris therefore wants to believe that its interests will be taken into account, even if the pressure continues to mount.

“If we do not conclude an agreement with them (the Mercosur countries), this vacuum will be filled by China,” warns future head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas.

Once in force, it would “increase the EU's gross domestic product (GDP) by 15 billion euros and that of the Mercosur countries by 11.4 billion euros”, assured Trade Commissioner Valdis. Dombrovskis, chief negotiator on the European side.

Nothing is decided yet

This agreement between the 27 of the EU and the Latin American countries of Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay) has been under discussion for more than 20 years, but its conclusion seems imminent for the countries which defend it. This free trade treaty provides in particular for a quota of Latin American beef imports of some 90,000 tonnes per year.

“It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s enough to destabilize the entire industry,” warns Céline Imart, French MEP, Republican representative and farmer.

Along with another French MEP, François-Xavier Bellamy, she sent a letter to European Commission President Urusla von der Leyen asking her “to reconsider this agreement and demand the introduction of robust mirror clauses”. These make it possible to ensure that both parties have the same health or environmental constraints, which, affirms Paris, is far from being the case.

But nothing is decided yet. Michel Barnier's visit to Brussels is “complementary” to the action taken by the Head of State.

“It’s an asset,” explains the Prime Minister’s entourage.

Coincidence of the calendar, Emmanuel Macron will debate Wednesday in Paris with former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, author of a report on the competitiveness of the European Union. He proposes a vast reform plan aimed at reviving growth in a Europe which is stalling compared to the United States, and is threatened with a trade war with Donald Trump.