Economic situation in France: “The bill is being paid”

While social plans have multiplied in France since September, Anne-Laure Kiechel, founder and president of Global Sovereign Advisory, Éric Heyer, director of the Analysis and forecasting department at the OFCE, and Jean-Marc Daniel, economist, returned to the economic situation in France in the France Inter interview.

For Éric Heyer, the labor market is turning around. “Since the health crisis, he has behaved very well. We didn't understand why companies were hiring so much. The figures for a semester tell us that there is a catch-up.“The director of the Analysis and Forecasting Department at the OFCE explains that”companies adjust employment to activity“, after having been helped by apprenticeship, loans guaranteed by the State, and made “labor retention” during the health crisis. The French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) predicts the destruction of 150,000 jobs in the coming months and an increase in unemployment of up to 8% at the end of 2025.

“We artificially maintained growth and the economy”

“The bill is being paid“, adds Jean-Marc Daniel. “We artificially maintained growth and the economy with large amounts of debt without solving the structural problems of the French economy.“The economist summarizes these structural problems as follows:”we don't work enough, so we don't produce enough and we don't export enough. We don't save enough, we consume too much, so we import too much. We then have a trade deficit which continues to widen.”

But for Anne-Laure Kiechel, founder and president of Global Sovereign Advisory, This economic situation is not a surprise. “There had already been signals for a while showing that we were heading there. Business investment has been declining for several quarters, and it still has consequences.“

About the election of Donald Trump in the United Statesshe states that “it will bring down the cards. He will probably act on tariffs and immigration, which will have strong consequences. The big subject will be the European response because not all countries will have the same sensitivity to price increases.”