The 2024-2025 hurricane season promises to be more active in Reunion

Between 9 and 13 systems are expected for the 2024-2025 cyclone season in the South-West Indian Ocean basin. 4 to 7 of them could reach the tropical cyclone stage, indicates Météo France.

As a reminder, no cyclone affected Reunion Island for more than 30 years, until Belal passed through on January 15. At the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s, a series of cyclones hit the island, with Clotilda in 1987, Firinga in 1989 and Colina in 1993.

Météo France announces cyclonic activity close to or above normal for the coming season. The trend is even towards an “active” season, even more than close to normal.

This year, the context is different. Warmer than normal sea temperatures and more intense rain-storm activity are expected in the center and east of the basin. Last year, it was the West part.

On a global scale, if the El Niño phenomenon had marked the austral summer of 2023-2024, the La Niña episode expected in the Pacific should be weaker than expected and limited to the months of November to January. This phenomenon, if located far away, strongly influences climate variability and particularly that of tropical zones.

Note, the Indian Ocean has been particularly marked by abnormally warm waters near the Chagos archipelago for several months. This situation could persist for at least part of the season and play a role in cyclonic activity, indicates Météo France.

The presence of abnormally warm waters should reinforce rainy and cyclonic activity. Météo France therefore has a ” good level of confidence ” regarding the distribution of privileged places for the formation of future systems.

The phenomena should mainly form in the eastern half of the basin, far from the Mascarenes. The risk of formation is located furthest east for 5 to 7 systems, and above the Mascarenes for 3 to 4 phenomena.

The cyclone trajectories would mainly orient towards the West and the South-West, unlike last year, when they descended quickly towards the South. They would therefore mark a return to the inhabited lands of the Mascarenes.

While for the last 3 hurricane seasons, we had to wait until January to experience the first impacting systems, this year the potential impacts could begin at the end of December.

Like every year, the list of system names for the 2024-2025 season has been established. Since 1979, they have consisted of first names, alternately masculine and feminine, arranged in alphabetical order and assigned as soon as the system reaches the moderate tropical storm stage.

Tropical storm ANCHA has already been named.