The dean Baba Diop of the Sud Communication Group, during the national elections (Presidential or Legislative), hosts succulent columns in the campaign newspaper on Sud Fm, with the famous character Ton’s. In one of his chronicles, Baba recounts the misadventure of Ton’s who goes to a meeting dressed in the colors of a political party. Arriving on the scene, he realizes that it is the competing party which is holding the meeting! But ingenious as he is, Ton’s just had to turn his big boubou around to be with the right colors. And all smiles, our national Ton’s says: “Maa graaw dé! Maa meun thiou, maa meun thiaa!”
We too are tempted to say to Victor Ndiaye, “yaa meun thiou, yaa meun thiaa!”, after his high performance. Indeed, this Monday, October 14, 2024, the President of the Republic presented the development strategy entitled “Senegal 2050”. The document is nothing other than a synthesis of the “National Strategy for the Development of the Senegalese Private Sector (Sndsp 2022-2026)” and the Priority Action Plan 3 (Pap3) 2024/2028 of the Emerging Senegal Plan ( Pse). Nothing has been fundamentally changed. The rappers from Keur Gui would have said: “Same dogs yi, same cats yi.” And it could not be otherwise because it was the same civil servants who carried out the work. However, friend Victor, like Merlin the enchanter, came to present his perlimpinpin powder to “make the Senegalese dream”. Senegal thus begins the era of continuity with the Pse of President Macky Sall without saying it, by a spectacular turnaround.
We only increase and strengthen what is already in place
Could it be otherwise? Already the Pastef party, like a Bedouin selling sand in the Sahara, has long agitated for a “Project” as real as Atlantis. During the presidential election last March, “Porozet” was even presented with a flagship idea: an “exit from the Cfa”, but which curiously disappeared in the document presented this week (this is proof that the question currency served as a backdrop for a populist and demagogic discourse to promote anti-French sentiment). Moreover, the Prime Minister with “five-year” or “ten-year” terms finally admitted that the campaign document was more of a “profession of faith” than a project, even less a program. Already, the vocabulary used showed that it relied heavily on what already existed. Indeed, in the program we count the verbs “strengthen” 92 times, “increase” 16 times, “reform” and “institute” 9 times each. The preeminence of the verbs “reinforce” and “increase” is proof that Diomaye’s program is based on what already exists. We only increase and strengthen what is already in place.
Vision Senegal 2050 has a history. It begins with the announcement by the highest authorities, in the Council of Ministers, of the drafting and finalization of the “Project” in September. Enough for the friend whose performances are highly appreciated in Gabon to be introduced by Atépa Goudiaby, godfather of the Sonko-Diomaye couple. Initially, according to well-informed sources, it was initially a “free” contribution to support the new authorities. But business being business, the contribution became “onerous”, with one site even talking about 2 billion CFA francs.
“We were elected to make the Senegalese dream, but your
document does not make you dream
On the instructions of the Prime Minister, officials from the Ministry of the Economy, already very advanced in drafting the document, were asked to see how to integrate the vice-president of the Senegal Investors Club (Cis) into the loop. Naturally, there was some friction, to the point of requiring the arbitration of Ousmane Sonko. A harmonization meeting was even held at the Riu Hotel. Following this, the roles were defined: Victor having to create the prospective vision and Abdourahmane Sarr’s teams the 2024-2029 strategic plan. Towards the end of August, a meeting to present the document to the leader of Pastef. And there, a twist: Ousmane Sonko tears up what was presented to him. “We were elected to make the Senegalese dream, but your document does not make people dream.” In addition, he will let them know that “(their) figures on the debt and the budget deficit are not the right ones”. Response from officials: “We have presented you with a realistic and achievable document. The figures we used are the official figures, produced by the competent services.
Never mind, Sonko turns to Victor to “make the Senegalese dream”. Friend Victor thought he had set the scene well by saying: “When you take over a house in poor condition, a sensible person would not move in there straight away. On the contrary, three steps are necessary: first make an exhaustive inventory, then rectify; then put in place solid foundations and major works, give impetus; and finally attack the second work, accelerate.” However, God created the Var and it reminds us that at the presentation of the “National Strategy for the Development of the Senegalese Private Sector (Sndsp 2022-2026)” (strategy whose broad outlines are included in the new document), the even Victor told us: “Today, we are exactly halfway to emergence in 2035. And during this first cycle of emergence, we saw it, you (Editor’s note: the President of the Republic) you built the foundations. It is important at the time of taking stock to tell the Senegalese. The structural work of emergence is now in place. And this structural work is the most difficult part. Like any impulse, it is the most costly part of public investment, and it is the most thankless part because, the structural work, no one can live there. But thanks to your results, our country can now initiate a new cycle towards emergence. Indeed, economic emergence is not about doing everything, but trying to do very well the priorities that we choose.” Seriously, the Var was created for the Senegalese!
Either Sonko is not telling the truth, or all the projections are then false
And ultimately, what to remember? This document, presented with a glaring lack of participatory approach (congratulations to Elimane Kane of Legs Africa for raising it), is based on the budget deficit and debt figures that Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko announced as false. Either the head of government is not telling the truth, or all the projections are false. If we are at a deficit of 10.4% on average between 2019 and 2023 (according to Sonko), we are then allowed to doubt the sincerity of the document which plans to achieve a budget deficit of 3% in 2025, after 3.9% in 2024. The IMF has already indicated in its latest economic review that “in the absence of additional budgetary measures, the deficit should exceed 7.5% of GDP, well beyond 3.9%. planned in the initial budget…”.
What about growth? It is clear that the Diomaye-Sonko couple terribly lacks ambition. Indeed, the 2050 Agenda expects an average growth rate of 6.5 to 7%. However, it is admitted that countries which have been able to achieve double-digit growth have been able to truly transform themselves. With these timid projections, Senegal risks reproducing the same failures as in the past. And tripling the GDP per capita, by increasing it from 1500 to 4500 dollars in 25 years, is to project us onto the current level of Namibia ($4512) and well below Equatorial Guinea ($5506), Gabon ($6655) and Botswana ($6708). Universal access to energy, within reach with the development of the “Gas to power” strategy, is postponed to 2034. Job creation remains very low with 700,000 jobs projected by 2025, while each year 350,000 young people enter the job market. Reported over the duration of the vision, more than 7 million young people are entering the job market. So only 10% job creation.
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