DECRYPTION. Business health: in Tarn-et-Garonne, construction manages to counter the crisis

No one, not even the Prime Minister, is now unaware of the amount of the country’s abysmal debt. “A backpack of 80 billion in debt interest that we leave to the younger generations,” observes Michèle Brogi. In this somewhat depressing context, it must be admitted, the unwavering good humor of the director of the Bank of France in Tarn-et-Garonne is not too much to sketch out the diagnosis and prospects. On a national scale, the Bank of Banks estimates that 2025 could be synonymous with a recovery in consumption, a projection which remains conditional on the deleterious geopolitical context in the Red Sea and the Middle East. “With the relaxation of interest rates, we expect a resumption of investments in 2026 which would allow us to achieve 2% growth compared to 3.5% today,” notes Michèle Brogi. That’s for the “positive attitude”.

Much less encouraging, we also learn that in Tarn-et-Garonne, the unemployment rate is 8.3% compared to 7.4% nationally but 8.7% in Occitanie. “While 38% of Tarn-et-Garonnais business leaders encounter difficulties in recruiting, even for unskilled jobs,” observes Michèle Brogi who knows that 2024 growth has been “resilient but less dynamic in the department than in in 2023.” “But we have solid SMEs that know how to be world leaders in their sector, like Celso or MAF Agrobotic in particular. Tarn-et-Garonne has also taken more markets – linked to the LGV, the A69 or the third metro line in Toulouse – than Haute-Garonne for example. There is an attractiveness that other departments of Occitanie do not have,” continues the director of the Banque de France.

And in fact, when we compare the 2024 construction figures to those of last year, we note a departmental increase of 14.1% compared to only 4.5% at the regional level. Expenditures thus increase by 208 million euros, or +7.1%, and local finishing works are particularly popular. “Encouraging figures, especially for SMEs which are doing well,” analyzes Michèle Brogi.

Negotiating your loan is now

Furthermore, the Banque de France estimates that 2024 is a “good year” for the arboriculture sector with a special mention for apples and plums. The picture is much less rosy for cereal growers (with a drop in production estimated at 16%) and wine growers, first in line on the bad weather front.

On the other hand, the situation is “very degraded” in commerce, catering, accommodation and transport. These are the figures for business failures in Tarn-et-Garonne, “especially VSEs but also some SMEs”, which support this observation: 26% for construction, 19% for commerce, 11% for accommodation and catering, 7% for industry and the same for transport. “There are fewer payment incidents in number but the amounts are higher. We have a lot of small businesses in liquidation,” recognizes the Banque de France.
Which also explains why the eligible ratings, this indicator which makes it possible to gauge the ability to borrow without risk, are down by 2%. “It is not a question of a lack of structuring of companies but rather it is due to an impact of operating losses for more than 3 years. But we have to see the full glass: 65% of our local businesses are eligible and therefore have this capacity to resist”, positive Michèle Brogi.

Now onto real estate. As recently indicated by notaries, the sales market recorded a recession of 26%, which corresponds to the drop in credits allocated to households. “We had between 6 and 7 billion loans in the spring and in July, we reached 11 billion. To say that we no longer lend is false. »And precisely, the boss of the Banque de France has advice for individuals who are considering buying, to put into practice very quickly. “Currently, the European Central Bank rates are falling, so now is the time to negotiate your loan and take advantage of the competition. »