here are the weather trends until the end of the year

While we might have hoped that the month of October would put an end to this incredible series of rainier than normal months, this should not be the case according to the seasonal trends provided by Philippe Mievis, from MeteoBelgique. “One year!” One year in fact that for all months in Uccle, the amount of precipitation measured was higher than normal. During previous analyses, it was announced that October could finally be drier and sunnier. Unfortunately, this will probably not be the case,” laments Philippe Mievis.

He explains the reason to us: “The overheated North Atlantic Ocean is conducive to cyclogenesis and, as we had already mentioned in previous months, in this month of October, remnants of tropical cyclones could end their lives in extra storms. -tropicals near our regions or merge with our classic depressions”. This would, he said, bring a surplus of humidity and “precipitable” water which would have to be taken into account. “For the future, it’s more vague with a limited confidence index. But a drier trend should set in. It will undoubtedly be colder but dry at the end of November. We are heading towards a fairly typical December with sometimes temporarily wintry weather, but this should not be the overall trend for this month which will, on the contrary, often be quite mild and slightly disturbed.” Here are the trends for the next three months:

> October 2024 (high reliability index). “Old tropical cyclones at the end of their life will interfere with the classic circulation of our depressions. This will already be the case at the end of the first decade with the arrival of the remains of Hurricane Kirk, but this is likely to happen again throughout this month, resulting in very variable weather throughout this month, which makes it difficult to give a clear trend by decade.” In fact, the IRM predicts heavy rain for this Wednesday 9th and Thursday 10th.

> November 2024 (average reliability index). “The first decade should continue the trend from the end of October with still unsettled weather. A change should take place during the second decade with the arrival of anticyclonic conditions and significantly drier, significantly colder weather but unfortunately with mists and fogs often present, and often icing. The first frosts of the winter season should affect our country.”

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> December 2024 (very low reliability index). “We should oscillate between slightly wintry and cool periods and periods that are unseasonably mild and slightly disturbed; all in all, a fairly typical winter month in Belgium.”