If the sun dominates over a large part of France this Friday October 4, 2024, it should not last. After another day of respite on Saturday October 5, then more unsettled weather in the north of the country on Sunday, the weather promises to be much more unstable in France from Monday, under the influence of the return to Europe of former cyclonic phenomena formed in the Atlantic.
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A “very classic weather pattern in October” but who “requires increased monitoring”according to Regis Crepet, forecaster for The Weather Channel . Here’s what to expect.
A “Cévennes episode” in the South-East Monday and Tuesday
“This week from Monday October 7 to Sunday October 13, 2024 will see the installation of low geopotentials (depressions at altitude) throughout Western Europe »warns Weather Cities . It is first of all the south-east of France which will be affected, from Monday, by a rainy episode caused by the arrival of ex-tropical storm Joyce on Ireland. Having become depressed again, she “will lead to a southerly flow which will bring great mildness to our country as well as heavy rains to the south-east, coming up from the Mediterranean”explain The Weather Channel .
The rains will increase on Monday evening in Hérault, Gard and the Cévennes, marking the start of a “Cevennes episode” which should concern an entire south-eastern quarter of France, from Provence-Alpes-Côte-d’Azur to Alsace, via the Alps and Franche-Comté. Rainfall accumulations could reach 100 to 150 mm locally, and wind gusts could reach 100 km/h. The episode is expected to evacuate to Italy on Tuesday evening.
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Remnants of Hurricane Kirk expected midweek
But the respite will be short-lived, since a new phenomenon will take over: Hurricane Kirk, formed in the Atlantic, should move towards Europe under the effect of a westerly flow. It will transform into an extra-tropical depression as it passes over the Azores, but its remnants could affect the north-west of France from Thursday October 10, bringing sustained winds and heavy accumulations of rain, as shown in this shared visualization on X by the meteorologist Guillaume Jauseau:
Gusts of 120 or even 130 km/h could be recorded on the coasts “from Brittany to Nord-Pas-de-Calais”and up to 100 km/h inland, anticipates The Weather Channel which specifies that “the threshold of the storm could be reached along the Channel coast”.
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It is impossible at this time to accurately predict the trajectory of Kirk’s remains. “They may very well dissipate or maintain a very active extra-tropical depression. Therefore, it will be appropriate to monitor the risk of gales or even storms for the middle of next week”underlines Weather Cities. But one thing is certain, umbrellas will be out. As often in recent weeks: September 2024 was the rainiest month of September in twenty-five years.
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