“We are somewhat obliged to give the product a chance…”. This is a bit of the atmosphere among the Macronists before Michel Barnier’s first steps in the bubbling cauldron of the Palais Bourbon. The Prime Minister must deliver his general policy declaration (DPG) this Tuesday to the National Assembly.
Weakened by the hiccups of last week, the former European commissioner is already playing a role in his survival at Matignon. Contested by the left, which will in any case table a motion of censure at the end of the week, monitored by the National Rally, and eagerly awaited by a divided government coalition, Michel Barnier’s speech resembles a puzzle insoluble.
Find budgetary options
This is one of the expected highlights of the speech, and the main challenge for the new government. France’s public debt continued to swell at the end of June, INSEE announced this Friday, flirting with 3,230 billion euros, or 112% of GDP. “We are on the verge of a financial abyss, there is no need to have completed the ENA to understand that we must reduce our lifestyle, with a public deficit close to 6% this year,” sighs Eric Pauget , LR deputy for Alpes-Maritimes.
Michel Barnier will have to reveal his ideas for reducing the bill, but his call for more “tax justice” showed how perilous the subject was in the presidential camp. “We spent seven years, patiently, building stability by lowering taxes. Be careful not to send the wrong signal, which could prove devastating to our attractiveness,” warns Mathieu Lefèvre, Ensemble deputy (ex-Renaissance) for Val-de-Marne, long anticipated for the Budget. “We must work to restore public accounts but without moving towards easy tax increase measures,” adds Prisca Thevenot, the former government spokesperson. Good luck.
Satisfy the right (and the RN?) on the regalian…
With an Interior Minister already omnipresent, the right has high hopes for security and immigration issues. “We have great expectations of firmness on the regalian,” recognizes Eric Pauget. There are things to be done on border deportations, the reform of the AME and on certain measures of the latest immigration law, censored by the Constitutional Council on the form…”, he adds. After the murder of Philippine in the Bois de Boulogne, the main suspect of which is a Moroccan subject to an obligation to leave French territory, Laurent Wauquiez increased the pressure by denouncing “the dysfunctions of our judicial and administrative system” to better make it evolve. .
The National Rally will also have an attentive ear on Tuesday on these subjects. Marine Le Pen’s group proposed this Wednesday in its parliamentary niche, scheduled for the end of October, to relax the conditions for expulsion of foreigners and to establish minimum penalties for certain crimes and misdemeanors. “I don’t see how the government could oppose it…” criticized the RN deputy for the Somme, Jean-Philippe Tanguy. Will Michel Barnier dare to take up these measures that he defended in the past when he was a presidential candidate?
…without fracturing its fragile majority
Not sure because the Prime Minister is on a crest line. If he wants to offer pledges to the right, he must also avoid giving too much importance to Jordan Bardella’s movement. Especially since the phone picked up this week to reassure Marine Le Pen after a controversy with the Minister of the Economy, raised the temperature in the presidential camp, without even mentioning the left, which has been red hot for weeks. “A mistake,” laments Erwan Balanant, the MoDem deputy from Finistère. “We will be vigilant, because if we are told that we need a very tough new migration text, that we are offered a policy that is too right-wing, then we will no longer have anything to do in this government,” threatens he is already worried by the first speeches of the Minister of the Interior.
“Mr. Retailleau is not forced to act tough on the sets, he did not win the elections. He will come up against a reality called the National Assembly,” also warns Prisca Thevenot. “We have created a balanced immigration law, can we already apply it? », she asks, referring to the text voted on last year, which had already significantly fractured the presidential majority.
In addition to immigration, other subjects risk inflaming the fragile government coalition, such as the end of life or proportional representation. As an old sage of French politics, Michel Barnier has not yet really revealed his cards. “Be careful, because by doing the splits, we risk tearing,” mocks the elected RN of Loiret, Thomas Ménage. Faced with such a plural Assembly, the Prime Minister’s performance on Tuesday indeed promises some risky acrobatic figures.
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