Although it is still an important factor in New Brunswick’s population growth, the effect of interprovincial migration is gradually diminishing.
According to Statistics Canada data, in 2021-2022, the province welcomed more than 18,000 new residents from other provinces and territories of Canada, while just over 10,000 New Brunswickers did the opposite.
Over the previous five years, we were only talking about 10,000 to 12,000 new interprovincial arrivals. Almost as many people left the province for other places in the country.
Following this meteoric increase, the rate of new interprovincial residents rose to just over 16,000 in 2022-2023, and to approximately 14,600 in 2023-2024. Approximately 11,000 people left New Brunswick in 2022-2023. There were nearly 12,000 in 2023-2024.
Much of this migration is attributable to Ontario. In 2021-2022, nearly 10,000 Ontarians came to settle in New Brunswick. Although it subsequently declined somewhat, the number of new residents of Ontario origin remains high.
Economist Richard Saillant judges that New Brunswick’s population growth should not continue at such a breakneck pace, in particular because of Ottawa’s measures to reduce the arrival of non-permanent residents.
As for interprovincial immigration, the decrease is partly attributable to the decrease in these new arrivals from southern Ontario whom he calls “housing refugees”.
“Historically, even though housing prices were very high in Toronto, before the pandemic, there was no increase in the number of people coming to New Brunswick. It was really when the crisis took on unprecedented proportions that there were more people who felt forced to take the leap,” explained Richard Saillant.
On the other hand, he believes that people who came to settle in New Brunswick may have been disappointed to realize that life is not as advantageous as they believed.
“The challenge is not just finding affordable housing, but finding it at all. New Brunswick, being a small province, has less capacity to welcome, year after year, the flow of newcomers of the magnitude that we have experienced in recent years.”
“That means that there are a lot of people who arrive here, who look at the reality of housing and salaries, and who say to themselves that it’s not that interesting after all.”
The other reason that explains the narrowing gap between people entering versus those leaving New Brunswick from 2022 to 2024 is the fact that more New Brunswickers than before are looking to settle elsewhere.
He notes that many more people from New Brunswick are moving to Quebec and Alberta, while the reverse has become less common.
“We must remember that in Quebec, there are places where the price of housing is affordable. I can’t say if this explains the phenomenon, but the number of people from New Brunswick who leave for Quebec has increased considerably.
“In Alberta, you shouldn’t think that everything is expensive everywhere. In Edmonton, the cost of living is not that expensive and salaries in Alberta are good.”
The fact remains that there are still many people from other provinces, mainly from Ontario, who choose New Brunswick as their destination. If we compare it with statistics collected before the pandemic, there are still twice as many Ontarians deciding to move to the province.
Although some of them are individuals or families looking for rent, many people want to become owners due to the lower price of residences in New Brunswick.
Even if the population growth generated by interprovincial immigration tends to be reduced, Mr. Saillant does not believe that this is necessarily a permanent decrease.
“The fact remains that people are coming here more than before if we count total migration.”
“There is still a high gap between supply and demand for housing and it will take years before that is resolved. I anticipate that, although the influx of people may be lower than what we have seen in recent years, New Brunswick will continue to welcome historic numbers of newcomers.
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