Citrus fruits: this is how the 2024-2025 season is shaping up for Morocco

The production ofcitrus au Morocco should experience a notable increase for the 2024-2025 season, according to a study BMI-Fitch Solutionsbased in particular on data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

This progression, driven by more favorable weather conditions and better availability ofirrigationgives hope for a recovery after several years marked by a drought prolonged. However, production levels will remain below the records reached in 2018-2019, highlighting the structural challenges facing the sector.

The forecasts for the 2024-2025 season are encouraging: the production oforanges is expected to increase by 17.1% compared to the previous year, reaching 960,000 tonnes. THE lemons et limes should experience an increase of 12.5% ​​to 45,000 tonnes, while the production of tangerines et clementines would increase by 15.8%, to 1.1 million tonnes. These figures are mainly explained by improved rainfall and increased use of innovative irrigation techniques, such as plastic mulchwhich helps reduce water consumption.

The study highlights that in the citrus sector, the growth of mandarins and clementines is accelerating compared to oranges. While in 2000-2001, mandarins and clementines represented 26.7% of total citrus production in Morocco, this share increased to 52.5% in 2023-2024. This reflects the increase in global consumption of mandarins and clementines, which increased by 310.5% between 2000-2001 and 2023-2024, compared to an increase of 61.5% for oranges.

Fitch notes that the sector’s performance in 2024-2025 will, however, remain below the peaks reached in 2018-2019, mainly due to a six-year drought which has weighed heavily on the country’s agricultural production. “The Moroccan citrus sector had its best year in terms of production in 2018/19, but the positive forecasts for 2024-2025 still indicate that orange production will be 18.9% lower than that of the season record, while the production of mandarins will be 20% lower,” it is specified.

According to the study, Morocco is one of the countries most affected by drought in the MENA region (Middle East/North Africa). This situation has contributed to a reduction in agricultural yields and production in recent years. For citrus production, the worst seasons were recorded in 2019-2020, where production fell by 31.8% year-on-year, and 2022-2023, with a drop of 31.7%.

The citrus sector represents a major component of theMoroccan agro-industrybut challenges remain. Citrus exports generated $457 million in 2023, or 1.1% of the country’s total exports. However, this share is in decline compared to the 1.6% recorded in 2014. Likewise, in 2023, citrus fruits represented 25.7% of total fruit exports and 7.7% of agricultural exportsproportions significantly lower than the 53.8 and 12.5% ​​recorded in 2014.

“Although the proportion of fruits in Morocco’s total exports increased from 2.9% in 2014 to 4.2% in 2023, thecitrus industry is experiencing a relative decline in its share of exports of fruits and agricultural. This reflects the challenges facing the sector,” the study said. This trend is also observed at the global level: in 2004, Morocco was the sixth largest exporter of citrus fruits in the world, with 3.8% market share. In 2023, it ranks ninth, representing only 2.8% of global exports. Exports for the first half of 2024 are also down 7.1% from 2023 and 37.4% from 2022, reflecting the ongoing challenges facing the sector.

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According to the study, the water stress constitutes a major risk for Moroccan agricultural production, and more particularly for citrus fruits. According to the FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization)the level of water stress in Morocco reached 50.8%, compared to 8.4% in Europe and a global average of 18.6%. Agriculture consumes 31.6% of renewable water resources, compared to only 6.7% on average worldwide. Faced with these structural challenges weighing on Moroccan agricultural production, the government has attached increasing importance to this sector in recent years.

For example, in 2020, the government launched the “Generation Green 2020-2030», aiming to develop a new agricultural middle class and to focus on high value-added agriculture. This strategy includes the promotion of water desalinationas well as loans and training programs to encourage smart farming practices facing the climate.

Despite the challenges linked to climate change and international competition, the Moroccan citrus sector retains its strengths. Moroccan exports are distinguished by a high unit value (974 dollars/ton), higher than that of countries like Morocco. Türkiye (576 dollars/ton) orSouth Africa ($705/ton). However, they remain below those of theSpain (1,289 dollars/ton) andItaly (1.415 dollars/tonne).

To increase the resilience of the sector, significant investments will be necessary, particularly in irrigation and agricultural infrastructure. Furthermore, fluctuations in exchange rates could influence the competitiveness of Moroccan exports compared to European and Turkish competitors, particularly in the event of depreciation of theeuro or the Turkish lira.

“According to forecasts from our country risk analysis team, the Moroccan dirham is expected to appreciate in 2025, while the euro and Turkish lira are expected to depreciate. This could increase the competitiveness of citrus exports from Turkey and European producers such as Italy and Spain, while representing a risk for the competitiveness of Moroccan exports,” estimate economists from Fitch Solutions.