WASHINGTON — The new year will see the return of Donald Trump to the White House and trigger a new wave of anxiety as Canada braces for the Republican’s disruptive agenda and looming threats of major tariffs.
It has long been tradition for the incoming president to have an ambitious 100-day plan. Republicans say Americans, who elected Mr. Trump and gave Republican lawmakers a majority in Congress, approved the mandate.
“There is supposed to be a series of executive orders ready for day one,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Canadian Institute at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington.
Mr. Trump said he would not be a dictator, “except on day one.” The big question is what’s in the package for Mr. Trump’s first day back and how it will affect Canada.
The president-elect indicated in November that at the top of his plans is an executive order calling for a 25% tariff on all products entering the United States from Canada and Mexico.
In a social media post weeks after the election, Mr. Trump said the tariffs would remain in place until both countries stop drugs and people from crossing borders illegally. In response, Justin Trudeau traveled to Florida for dinner with Mr. Trump and his team at Mar-a-Lago, but the prime minister left without any assurance that Canada would get exemptions.
Canada then announced a series of measures to strengthen the border with a $1.3 billion program in response to Mr. Trump’s threat.
Mr. Sands said he would monitor the response of Congress and the business community if the tariffs are passed. Executive orders can be challenged in court, and many U.S. industries, particularly the auto sector, would be devastated by the tariffs.
Congress is unlikely to fight Mr. Trump, Mr. Sands said, but there is a limit. And it could be detrimental to trade deals and American pocketbooks.
“The ultimate obstacle to all of this is that the public doesn’t like the impact of the tariffs,” Sands said. “They complain to Congress. Congress regains powers or says ‘no’… This is Canada’s last hope.”
Threats of eviction
Beyond the threat of taxes, Mr. Trump campaigned on a series of promises upon his return. He promised structural changes, the potential layoff of thousands of federal employees, rolling back environmental protections and said he wanted to “drill, drill, drill” from day one.
The president-elect also pledged to launch a mass deportation of migrants.
After Mr. Trump’s victory in 2016, thousands of people fearing the Republican’s initial threats of deportation began heading north across the U.S.-Canada border. Canadian officials and law enforcement are preparing in case there is another surge.
The lure of the 100-day deadline must be resisted, said Alasdair Roberts, professor of public policy at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst.
“The philosophy of government is that if you can’t get what you want in the first phase of your administration, then you’ll be bogged down after that,” Roberts said, adding that presidents are unlikely to do everything they promised within this time frame.
Mr Roberts suspects there will be swift action on immigration, although any type of mass deportation will take time. He also expects administrative reforms, including something like “Schedule F,” which turns career civil servants into political appointees who are easier to fire and hire.
The experience of the first mandate
This is certainly not the first time Mr. Trump has faced a long list of ambitious campaign promises. When he ran for president in 2016, he pledged to immediately renegotiate trade deals and deport immigrants.
Although the North American Free Trade Agreement was renegotiated during the first Trump administration, replaced by the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement, this was not immediate. And the Republican’s initial efforts at expulsions and travel bans from majority-Muslim countries have faced numerous obstacles.
Mr. Trump’s major 2016 promise to repeal and replace Democratic President Barack Obama’s health care law famously failed, failing to get a green light from Republican Senator John McCain.
Mr. Roberts said that only one of Mr. Trump’s promised laws was introduced to Congress in April 2017 and it was not passed.
“It wasn’t really a legislative blitz, even though Mr. Trump’s party controlled both houses of Congress,” Mr. Roberts previously noted in an article for The Wilson Quarterly.
The first six months of the year will see a strong push for change, Mr Roberts said. But, he warned, “Canadians should be wary of the rhetoric.”
The president-elect returns for the second round after learning from previous obstacles. His team is prepared and fiercely loyal.
Senate Republicans came together to lay the groundwork for the ambitious legislative agenda. Possibilities include priority energy, border security and defense policies that could be approved within the first 30 days of Mr. Trump’s presidency.
The Republican-majority Congress will meet on January 3. The Senate expects confirmation hearings for Mr. Trump’s top Cabinet nominees to begin quickly. Matthew Lebo, an expert on American politics at Western University in London, Ont., said it would indicate whether any Republicans are willing to stand up to the president-elect.
Some of Mr. Trump’s nominees, including Fox News anchor Pete Hegseth for defense secretary and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard for director of national intelligence, have encountered resistance.
Mr. Lebo said he would watch to see whether lawmakers follow their moral judgment and break with Mr. Trump — or hold their noses and approve of the president-elect’s choices.
“Are all the security barriers really lifted?” asked Mr. Lebo.
— With information from the Associated Press
