An eventful year in Ottawa in 2025

To say that the year 2025 will be eventful on the federal scene is an understatement. It risks being downright historic, with an extraordinary new president in the United States and general elections in Canada. Will Justin Trudeau survive 2025? Will Donald Trump follow through on his tariff threats? Will Canada have a new prime minister? Questions to which we will have the answers over the coming months.

• Also read: 2025, a pivotal year for Trump and Trudeau… but also for you

An election, but when?

Thanks to the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP), Justin Trudeau managed to postpone the expiration date of his minority government and remain in power.

The year 2025 marks the end of this road.

Will we have elections this spring, this summer or later in the fall?

The three opposition parties – the Conservative Party, the NDP and the Bloc Québécois – must join forces to bring down the government, unless Justin Trudeau calls an election himself.

The conservatives of Pierre Poilievre and the Bloc Québécois of Yves-François Blanchet were until very recently the only ones to openly demand a vote. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP, after the chaos created by the resignation of former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, is now in this camp.

Down in the polls, the Liberals are delaying the inevitable, but it now seems certain that elections will take place sooner rather than later.

At the forefront of Trump

Donald Trump will officially become the 47th^e President of the United States on January 20. Canada and the entire planet are already holding their breath.

What consequences will the start of his presidency have on Canada?

Will he carry out his threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian imports?

Will he raise his voice against Canada to convince us to invest more in our national defense?

Will he implement his plan to deport millions of people, which could have enormous consequences on the border, as during his first presidency?

Will he withdraw his commitment to Ukraine or NATO?

Will he continue to make fun of us with his bad jokes about the annexation of Canada by the United States?

The list of questions is long. This is without taking into account what is impossible to predict with this president.

The year of truth for Trudeau

This year, the fate of Justin Trudeau will be decided. Will he be pushed to resign? Will he achieve the improbable by winning a fourth election in a row? Will he suffer the scathing defeat that the polls have predicted for a year and a half?

After nine years in power, this is the year of truth for the Liberal leader, whose leadership is hanging by a thread after the surprise resignation of Chrystia Freeland.

There is no longer any question for him of pushing back the deadline.

A defeat or resignation would close a long chapter of the PLC, which Justin Trudeau resurrected against all expectations in 2015 after the sponsorship scandal.

A victory against Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh would make Justin Trudeau the first prime minister to win four consecutive elections in more than 100 years.

Part of Justin Trudeau’s legacy will be written in 2025. It remains to be seen whether he will survive the coming weeks, which is far from clear.

Jagmeet also plays his future

Since Jagmeet Singh became leader of the NDP, the party has been struggling in voting intentions, at less than 20%. At the same time, his agreement with the Liberals allowed him to obtain tangible and very real political gains, such as the dental care program.

A political legacy so far mixed for Jagmeet Singh since 2017, between the advancement of his policies and the electoral defeats.

The NDP today finds itself stuck between Pierre Poilievre, who is courting the vote of union members and workers, and the Liberals, who have adopted large parts of the NDP program to stay in power.

Will Jagmeet Singh succeed in establishing himself as the alternative to Pierre Poilievre in place of Justin Trudeau?

His political survival depends on it.

Update on foreign interference

An election year means risk of foreign interference. We already know that the 2019 and 2021 elections were tainted by the influence of malicious actors who operated on behalf of foreign countries. After months of work, the Commission on Foreign Interference will submit its final report in a few weeks.

The deadline is timely since Canadians will soon be called to the polls.

The conclusions of Commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue are likely to shed new light on the risks facing federal political parties and our electoral system.

The process of nominating candidates is one of the main entry points for interference. However, the main parties refuse to change their rules.

Will they finally agree to get to the bottom of things in order to face the threat that will undoubtedly await them during this new electoral cycle?