Chaos threatens in France and Germany: and in Switzerland?

Analyse

Political chaos threatens Germany, France and Austria. It is Italy, once notoriously unstable, which acts as a rock in the storm.

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The European continent, a model of democracy, currently gives off an impression of instability. Certainly, the new European Commission was able to take office as planned on 1^is December. However, Germany and France, which have long been the “engine” of European unification, are politically weakened.

The same goes for Austria, which means that Switzerland – if we exclude the “special case” of Liechtenstein – is surrounded on three sides by countries that are more or less broken down. There is no direct problem, the political and legal safeguards are too strong for that. But this situation is untenable in the long term.

The political situation in Germany

A month ago, the crisis-ridden German tricolor coalition, made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP, broke up with a bang. Since then, a red-green transitional government has been in place in Berlin, until new elections on February 23, 2025. On December 16, Chancellor Olaf Scholz will submit to a vote of confidence in the Bundestag.

Although Olaf Scholz is unpopular, the SPD is campaigning with him again.Image: keystone

However, the question of whether a stable government can then be formed quickly remains open. The Union parties, with chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, are clearly ahead in the polls. The SPD is once again campaigning with the unpopular Scholz, and not with the much more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

It is not known how many parliamentary groups will be represented in the next Bundestag. The FDP, the Linke and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) may not reach the 5% threshold and depend on direct mandates. All this makes the formation of a government unpredictable, although a “grand” CDU/CSU and SPD coalition seems to be the most likely.

After the experience of the traffic light coalition, no one really wants a new three-way alliance. If the “faltering parties” succeed, this is the scenario that risks occurring, because no one wants to form a coalition with the far-right AfD party. However, Germany, whose economy is in difficulty, would urgently need stability.

The political situation in France

Emmanuel Macron (left) must find a successor to Michel Barnier.Image: keystone

France is currently a real political henhouse. On Wednesday, the center-right government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier was overthrown, after just three months, by a motion of censure from the left and right opposition in the National Assembly. This vote was mainly motivated by the question of the state budget for the coming year.

France’s debt has literally exploded since the pandemicto reach more than three thousand billion euros. Barnier warned in vain against a situation reminiscent of that in Greece. What happened next is unclear. In Parliament, the three big blocs put obstacles in each other’s wheels. And new elections are not possible before next summer, in accordance with the Constitution.

Many people blame Emmanuel Macron for this inextricable situation, who must now find a new head of government capable of bringing together a majority in Parliament. Macron addressed the population this Thursday evening on television. He notably announced that he would not resign.

No one can force him to do so, even if the left and the far right are calling for early presidential elections. Marine Le Pen, the head of the National Rally, is particularly interested in this option: she risks being ineligible for five years for having embezzled European funds. France is far from stable.

The political situation in Austria

FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl (right) won the election, but Karl Nehammer is expected to remain chancellor.Image: keystone

On September 29, national elections were held in our eastern neighbor, but the new government is not yet in place. The big winner was the populist right-wing party FPÖ. However, after consulting all parties, Green President Alexander Van der Bellen found that no one wanted to collaborate with the controversial FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl.

Despite customs, Van der Bellen gave the mandate to outgoing Chancellor Karl Nehammer (ÖVP) to form a government. Since mid-November, negotiations have been underway for an alliance between the ÖVP, the SPÖ and the liberals of the NEOS party. Many ÖVP members are not comfortable with this idea. They want the FPÖ to be their government partner, as is the case in several Länder.

“A broad alliance from the center can offer the stability that Austria now desperately needs,” Nehammer counters. His country faces a high deficit, like France, and a faltering economy, like Germany. Recently, the motorcycle manufacturer KTM has been hit, and the collapse of René Benko’s real estate empire has not been “digested” either.

The political situation in Italy

For Giorgia Meloni, everything is going well at the moment.Image: keystone

We currently have the impression of living in an upside down world. Italy was once synonymous with political instability: no government lasted more than a year. And today? Giorgia Meloni’s conservative right-wing coalition has been in place for more than two years. The Prime Minister (Meloni insists on the masculine) is aiming for a full five-year mandate.

The so-called “featherweight” from Rome has defied all predictions, including those of “machos” like Lega leader Matteo Salvini. In the polls, Meloni’s party, Fratelli d’Italia, is clearly in the lead, ahead of the left-wing Partito Democratico (PD). Recently, she was able to install her trusted man Raffaele Fitto as vice-president of the European Commission, despite opposition from the left.

But everything is not so rosy ????

In foreign policy, she follows a pro-European and transatlantic course. His plans on the national level are much more controversial. The refugee camp project in Albania has been stopped for the moment. Meloni also wants to stem galloping debt, which recently gave rise to a showdown with unions. But she should emerge unscathed.

And Switzerland in the middle

Peacefully installed in Switzerland, supposedly super stable, we could make fun of this chaos, but that would be showing a lack of insight. Our neighbors are too important for our stabilityincluding on the economic level. The problems in German industry are being felt by our partners and suppliers. They complain about the lack of orders and ask for partial unemployment.

We should also ask ourselves to what extent we are still exemplary with our concordance system. The bourgeois majorities in the Federal Council and Parliament are using their power in an ever more shameless manner. On the other hand, the left and the Greens are winning the popular votes, which was almost unthinkable before. The situation is no longer as stable here either.

The news in Switzerland is here

Translated and adapted from German by Léa Krejci