Dince November, several European countries, including Germany, the Baltic countries, Finland, Sweden and Norway, have launched information campaigns aimed at their citizens, to provide them with details of what to do in the event of armed conflict or major crisis. Food reserves to bring at home, location of air raid shelters, energy management: everything is planned.
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Stockholm distributed a paper guide entitled “In case of crisis or war” to all its citizens, indicating the location of the country's 65,000 nuclear shelters, and increased the preparation budgets of civil defense services by releasing 33 million additional euros. For its part, Helsinki encourages its population to “prepare for incidents and crises” and has shelters capable of housing almost all of its 5.5 million inhabitants. Finally, Oslo explains in a booklet “how to play a role in preparing for crisis situations in Norway”.
“We must be prepared for war”
Such communication and public opinion preparation operations had not been seen on such a scale since the end of the Cold War, and now include chapters on cybersecurity or resilience in terms of energy, telecommunications and health. They illustrate a certain frenzy on the part of the authorities following the uncertain evolution of the situation in Ukraine, but also after the election of Donald Trump to the White House and in the face of the explosive situation in the Middle East.
ALSO READ Vladimir Putin signs record military budget for 2025With the stated aim of breaking down whatever naivety there might be left among the Germans, Defense Minister Boris Pistorius did not beat around the bush: “We must be prepared for a war,” he declared. on public television channel ZDF on November 29. A powerful statement, which reinforces the German army, the Bundeswehr, in its Operation plan Germanya set of awareness measures aimed at businesses and civilians already launched several months ago.
« Offensive bunker »
The German authorities, like those of the Baltic countries, have launched censuses of air-raid and anti-nuclear shelters, an approach described as a “bunker offensive” by the newspaper Picture newspaper. And on the military side, like everywhere in Europe, Germany is struggling to recover from the peace dividends, these drastic cuts in military budgets, decided in the wake of the end of the Cold War. “Everything that has been dilapidated in 30 years, sorry to say, cannot be made up for in 19 months,” insisted the German minister.
ALSO READ Should France build bunkers?In France, as in the United Kingdom, air raid shelters intended for the population are few in number and largely abandoned. “We are an endowed country,” a government advisor told us on Wednesday, December 4, between glances at a screen showing the discussions in the National Assembly which were preparing to censure the Barnier government. Worse: “If we built shelters, it would show that we do not believe in our deterrence,” added the advisor. A hell of a bet, which only holds if the balance of terror is well understood on both sides by leaders concerned about the survival of their fellow citizens.
-Hybrid Wars
“There is no imminent threat of conflict in Europe, but we have entered a negotiation phase in Ukraine and everyone is anticipating what will happen with Donald Trump taking office in January,” analyzes the general (2S) Olivier Kempf, director of the strategic synthesis firm La Vigie. “European statements on preparations for conflict aim to strengthen Zelensky's position, so that it is as weak as possible,” he believes.
ALSO READ Competitiveness, defense, Trump… The French among the most pessimistic in EuropeIn France, such information campaigns do not take place on a large scale. “The French are primarily concerned about what is happening in France, especially at the moment, the only international subject in the media being Mercosur because it has implications for the internal situation,” adds Olivier Kempf. “The closer you go to the Russian border, the more Russia scares and we see a real preparation of the populations, with the impression that a conflict is probable, not necessarily in the form of an open conflict as in Ukraine, but via hybrid actions such as sabotage or intrusions,” analyzes Annabelle Livet, research fellow at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS).
Rehabilitate security and defense
An electrical blackout, sabotage of a crucial gas pipeline in the middle of winter or even massive cyberattacks against hospitals are not science fiction: these methods have all been tested in recent years and have proven themselves. And public opinion knows it. “In these countries which feel vulnerable, the communication campaigns and preparations correspond to a need to reassure the population, which is less significant in France,” judges Annabelle Livet.
ALSO READ “Underwater cables are information highways that must be monitored”“Across the Rhine, the subject of defense and security is very taboo, it needs to be rehabilitated by the authorities through awareness campaigns,” assures this specialist in Germany, according to which “on the French side, certainly we don’t talk a lot about resilience, but two years ago, when half of the nuclear fleet was under maintenance, an emergency energy plan was produced very quickly and bore fruit.”
“We never anticipate enough”
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Since October 18, the European directive for the resilience of critical infrastructures (CER) has entered into force. It makes it possible to collect data on vulnerabilities and emergency plans planned by different state and private actors. “In France, we are used to this type of preparation with the laws on operators of vital importance, but for example Germany had no law on the protection of critical infrastructure, they had to move quickly on the subject” , says Annabelle Livet, from the FRS.
Even with the best plans, “we must remain very humble, in the vast majority of cases the plans are very insufficient, because we never anticipate enough the cascading effects, we are always in a much more degraded mode than what we we had anticipated,” adds the researcher. Enough to recall the adage of Prussian Marshal Von Molkte: “No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy. »
