An imminent signing. The President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen arrived this Thursday in Montevideo in Uruguay for the 65th summit of Mercosur, the southern market bringing together Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia. The two parties could announce on Friday the signing of the free trade agreement discussed since 1999.
Ursula von der Leyen put an end to the suspense by indicating on X that she had arrived there in the hope of signing this vast agreement linking 700 million people. “The finish line of the EU-Mercosur agreement is in sight,” wrote the German, whose decision to take the plane was made official just after the fall of the Barnier government on Wednesday evening. Emmanuel Macron responded by reaffirming that the draft agreement was “unacceptable as it stands”, indicated the Élysée. “We will continue to tirelessly defend our agricultural sovereignty,” added the French presidency.
France has become inaudible
After this signature phase, already reached in 2019, a period of six months would open to submit the project to a vote by Member States and the European Parliament. Recent rounds of negotiations have focused on the integration of the Paris agreement and a protocol to prevent deforestation. Brazil sought to protect its automobile industry. The negotiations reopened in 2023 no longer focused on agricultural issues at all. And the Commission has not negotiated mirror clauses, imposing reciprocity of production standards. However, it ensures that all precautions are taken to prevent the arrival of goods that do not meet EU health and environmental standards.
Ursula von der Leyen will be in Paris this Saturday for the inauguration of Notre-Dame and will be able to discuss it with Emmanuel Macron. But in the coming weeks, in addition to a government to make itself heard, France will need Italy to clearly speak out against this agreement. The strong support of Poland, the Netherlands or Austria would not allow it to create a blocking minority in the scenario, still hypothetical, where Brussels decides to circumvent unanimity. Germany, Spain and Portugal want to finally conclude this agreement which will give new opportunities to the EU and make it possible to counter China.
And in Brussels, the opposition from Paris is annoying. In the European Parliament, Spanish and German elected officials are calling on capitals not to listen to the arguments of Paris “which, under the pretext of not getting anything out of this agreement, wants to prevent all possible gains for its other partners”, says one of them .
-What the free trade agreement provides
What are the known provisions of the agreement? It covers automobiles, chemicals, the pharmaceutical sector, textiles and even services and public markets with the gradual disappearance of customs duties on 91% of EU exports and a growth gain of 0.1%. (0.3% in the best case) of EU GDP by 2032. Savings of 4 billion euros per year for European companies are expected.
But the agricultural provisions are the most controversial, mainly because of the absence of mirror clauses. Mercosur will be able to export an additional 99,000 tonnes of beef (with customs duties of 7.5%), 188,000 tonnes of poultry, 3.4 million tonnes of corn, 180,000 tonnes of sugar, 60,000 tonnes of rice and 45,000 tonnes of honey. For beef, this will represent 1.2% of current European consumption and 1.4% of chicken consumption. Too marginal according to Brussels, to have a severe impact on European farmers.
France
