Taxes, recruitment, community grants… analysis with Benjamin Morel of the consequences of the fall of the government

The motion of censure has been passed, what will happen now?

The government has resigned and will manage current affairs. IWe need to find a new one. But Emmanuel Macron cannot afford to wait two months this time. IA budget must be passed quickly.

The Prime Minister will manage current affairs. What options do the President have to replace him if he does not reappoint him again?

He can make a political choice, but it is complex, the The prospect of a left or center-left government appears more improbable. There remains the path of a center-right government, it is easier, but it would be a repeat of what he did with the Barnier government and that imeans proposing something to Marine Le Pen so that she does not censor it.

The last option is that of a more technical team with senior civil servants who would aim to pass a budget and hold the state together before a future dissolution.

The survival of the future government may depend, once again, on the positioning of Marine Le Pen. How do you read her strategy?

Marine Le Pen's objective was first of all not to censor Michel Barnier in order to send signals to the centrist electorate by appearing reasonable and moderate.

But she was forced to change strategy so as not to disappoint her own electorate (who now wanted censorship, Editor's note). If we want to understand the RN today, we must understand the last regional ones: the party today does not have the three to five regions it expected, because its voters did not come to vote, they judged that these elections were useless. It is a fundamentally abstentionist electorate.

If tomorrow, some of her voters see new taxes applied to them while Marine Le Pen had the power to censor the government, they will consider that it is of no use, next time they will will abstain and the RN will lose a large part of its deputies.

The RN cannot afford this. He must at all costs prevent his voters from abandoning him, so today he is forced to choose his electoral base which he sorely needs at the risk of sacrificing other voters whom he would like to bring back into his fold. But itThis situation slows down his strategy for coming to power.

Does Marine Le Pen also have an interest in pushing Macron to resign with a strategy of chaos to try to conquer the Elysée before a possible ineligibility which would be pronounced by the court in the affair of the parliamentary assistants?

You can see that, but I'm skeptical. First, because the harshness of the requisitions serves it politically, it can radicalize its electorate; if they are angry, they will vote, as for Trump. And this is notst not a verdict: that she is declared ineligible is probable. But the immediate ineligibility requested by the prosecution normally aims, in law, to put an end to a misdeed or to prevent its reiteration, which the RN will obviously not do, it would be electoral hara-kiri for it.

IIt is therefore not certain that the judges follow this requisition. That Marine Le Pen wants to accelerate the entire electoral calendar, with a strategy of chaos, for a simple eventualityis not obvious.

What about the budget now?

It can still be voted on by the end of the month. It's playable from a procedural point of view, it's complicated from a political point of view: can they agree on a text after such a rise in tensions?

Can we fear chaos as Michel Barnier suggested?

No, theFrance is not going to collapse because we don't have a budget. That's almost certain. Mr. Barnier tried to turn public opinion so that it would be easier for Marine Le Pen, for the socialists, not to vote for censure. PPolitically, we cannot blame him. Objectively, this is not true.

What will happen if the budget is not adopted?

There are several solutions (partial law on revenue, then on expenditure, recourse to ordinances, etc.). The one that will undoubtedly be considered is to pass a special bill for the beginning of 2025 which would allow the government to collect taxes and carry out expenditure on the basis of the previous year (by recovering the funds through decrees).

The RN said it would vote for them and I think that part of the left will not prevent it either. This allows you to hold out for a few months while voting on a budget..

Without a budget, the State will, on the other hand, pay more for the interest on its public debt, the increase in borrowing rates will have repercussions on bank credits. There will be multiple consequences…

Yes, for example, recruitment will be frozen in administrations. Just like the allocations from local authorities, blocked from the previous year, this can pose operational problems. The i'sState investments may also fall behind schedule, with possible penalties to be paid on contracts which will therefore cost more.

More si cela lasts a few months, we can manage to delay certain expenses and then act retroactively on some of them, or on certain revenues.

When Michel Barnier says that several million people will move to the higher income tax bracket, it is true. But if we have a budget in February or March, we can re-index retroactively. IThere would therefore be no real impact on taxes paid.

So it's not all or nothing: if this lasts a year, it will pose real problems of state dysfunction. If it lasts a short time, the impacts may be limited, it will not necessarily be comfortable for everyone, but it is something that we know how to manage.

Can the new government also be overthrown?

It's possible. QWhatever happens, there is no majority. But a government cannot keep structurally in the long term thanks to a political opponent, as is the case with Marine Le Pen. We can therefore imagine that other governments will fall if the budgets are rejected.

Could Emmanuel Macron then have recourse to article 16 which would give him full powers in a crisis situation?

It's not impossible. He alone appreciates the conditions which would lead him to use it. But it would be disproportionate, it would probably lead to political and social reactions.

Unless the country is on the verge of ruin, this could then be accepted by public opinion. But we don't need that to pass a budget, as we have just seen, there are other ways.

Is the scenario of a resignation of the head of state credible?

In the short term, this is not a solution. This will not help to have a budget on January 1st. And we cannot dissolve the Assembly again before July 8. So a new president will face the same parliamentary blockages.

Can we expect another dissolution from next summer?

Yes, because we see that we have a fairly advanced sticking point and that we do not necessarily have a ready-made alternative solution. But we're going to have a scheduling problem. If we dissolve on July 8, the elections will take place in August, that's annoying. If we dissolve in the fall, it's budgetary period, itThis is not a good idea. Then there are the municipal elections. We can always reject them as well as the senatorial elections. However, the following year, there is the presidential election.

And the data from electoral sociology would undoubtedly not allow us to have a majority that will hold in a year. It is part of our political landscape today.