After the activation of 49-3 by Michel Barnier on Monday to push through the Social Security budget, the RN announced its decision to vote on the motion of censure tabled by the left, threatening the survival of the government.
It is “a moment of truth that confronts everyone with their responsibilities. It is now up to you to decide if [le] country adopts responsible, essential and useful financial texts [aux] fellow citizens. Or maybe we're entering uncharted territory.”
With a serious face and a solemn tone, Michel Barnier took on Monday, shortly after 3:30 p.m., at the National Assembly, the responsibility of his government on the Social Security finance bill (PLFSS), exposing himself to the censorship of left-wing deputies and the National Rally (RN) who both tabled motions to this effect.
“We will vote on these motions of censure and first of all ours”announced Marine Le Pen, seeming to seal the fate of the government. Cornered, the tenant of Matignon will have multiplied the concessions, returning again, the same morning, to the dereimbursement of medicines planned for 2025, after a telephone exchange with Marine Le Pen.
The Prime Minister had already given up on increasing taxes on electricity and promised to reduce care covered by state medical aid.
But the leader of the RN deputies and her ally Eric Ciotti still point “two red lines” persistent: an insufficient revaluation of pensions, according to them, as well as an “rising labor costs”.
The country is now plunging into the unknown.
The government on borrowed time
If the motions of censure are rejected, Wednesday or Thursday, Michel Barnier will remain in Matignon and the Social Security budget will be adopted. But the problem will quickly resolve itself, since the end-of-management finance bill for 2024 will also be examined on Wednesday in the Assembly.
The government could still activate 49.3 and face a new motion of censure on Friday. Same case for the 2025 draft budget, returning to the Assembly on December 18, before a possible motion of censure two days later, according to La Dépêche, if the executive comes into force again.
But the scenario that is emerging is that of a motion of censure from the New Popular Front voted on the Social Security budget, this Wednesday or Thursday, with the support of the votes of the RN. This will be the case “99%”predicts Christophe Barbier, editorialist at BFMTV.
In this hypothesis, “The Prime Minister will therefore submit the resignation of the government to the Presidentanticipates political scientist Michel Crespy. I don't think he refuses it, as General De Gaulle did (during the only previous one, in 1962, Editor's note), because that would open an institutional crisis, it would be a standoff with Parliament. “
More “Michel Barnier will remain in place as long as he does not have a designated successor”, underlines Dominique Andolfatto, political science teacher, author of the latest issue of the Civitas Europa magazine on pension reform.
“So, we find ourselves back at square one,” summarizes Michel Crespy, “the President will once again look for a Prime Minister…”
Yes, but who?
The Prime Minister's choice
Emmanuel Macron has a first option: reappoint Michel Barnier to Matignon at the head of a remodeled government.
But the opposite is true.
“Most of the government team can remain in place, it is enough to change the Prime Minister and those who carried out the budgetary mechanism and its failureunderlines Christophe Barbier. To be sure that the next occupant of Matignon will not be censored by the RN, Sébastien Lecornu or Bruno Retailleau could be clever choices. Someone who builds a majority oriented towards the left, towards the socialists, is more risky, as the PS seems incapable of tearing itself away from the influence of LFI. »
The President of the Republic tested names for successors to Michel Barnier last week. He can also search “a more consensual Prime Minister”observe Michel Crespy.
“Or appoint a personality from civil society, a technocrat at the head of a technical government”adds Dominique Andolfatto.
In short, a government supposed to restore market confidence (France's borrowing rates increased on Monday, Editor's note). This would allow Macron to reposition himself at the center of the game.”
“The other solution he has is to do that like many foreign countries do, the Belgians, the Dutch, the Italians, explains Michel Crespy, that is to say, to appoint a facilitator responsible for bringing together the different parties and seeing on what point they can agree”.
But time is now running out.
The countdown
“In the summer, Emmanuel Macron took his time before appointing a new Prime Minister. This time, the budgetary and especially political emergency forces him to move faster. If we want to avoid economic punishment for France and a rise in French anger, we need a Prime Minister before Christmas”, observe Christophe Barbier.
In a France temporarily without a budget, public services would continue to operate, but the next government would face the same pitfalls, with the risk of also being overthrown.
However, Michel Crespy does not believe in using article 16 (giving full powers to the President in the event of a serious crisis)“this would be a completely abusive interpretation of the text”, he believes.
Nor to a resignation of the head of state. “It would not change anything because the new President, more likely, cannot dissolve this Assembly before June. We would once again have a government incapable of passing a budget, because there is no majority So this would aggravate the crisis instead of resolving it. he emphasizes.
