Political uncertainty in puts financial assets under pressure

Political uncertainty in puts financial assets under pressure
Political uncertainty in France puts financial assets under pressure

At the same time, the euro was deepening its losses and stocks were under pressure.

At 09:05 GMT, the rate spread, a measure of the perceived risk on French debt, reached 83.55 basis points (bp), after having climbed at the start of the session to 86.4 bp.

The yield on Greek bonds of the same maturity, for its part, fluctuated between 2.912% and 2.952%, compared to a variation of 2.873%-2.934% for the French OAT.

The National Rally (RN) will vote on the motion of censure if the government uses article 49.3 to pass the draft Social Security budget (PLFSS), Jordan Bardella, the president of the far-right party, said on Monday.

Uncertainty over the survival of the Barnier government fuels volatility on French rates, whose risk premium on comparable German securities reached its highest since 2012 on Wednesday, at 90.3 basis points.

Michel Barnier should hold his government accountable on Monday for the draft Social Security budget and have recourse to article 49.3 of the Constitution allowing the adoption of a text of law without a vote, for lack of a sufficient majority in the National Assembly.

“Whether the motions of censure fail (our basic scenario) or succeed, the real lesson of the current debate is that no French government will benefit from any political room for maneuver until at least next fall,” they say. Citi analysts in a note.

On the foreign exchange market, political uncertainty in is also putting pressure on the euro which fell 0.67% to 1.0502 dollars after falling during the session to 1.0497 dollars.

“French policy seems to be playing a late role on the foreign exchange market and leading to some underperformance of the euro,” underlines Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING.

On the stock market, in the morning, the Parisian CAC 40 index fell by 0.85% to 7,173.73 points, while the pan-European Stoxx 600 index lost only 0.07%, to 509.88 points.

(Written by Corentin Chappron and Claude Chendjou, edited by Kate Entringer)

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