A Prime Minister on borrowed time. While Michel Barnier will “probably” use article 49.3 of the Constitution to adopt the Social Security budget on Monday – as he has suggested in recent days – the government will most certainly have to face a motion of censure. And therefore at the risk of falling, its common base (the Macronists, their allies and the Republicans) being only in a relative majority (211 deputies out of 577).
Opposite, the left has already warned that it would table a motion of censure if 49.3 was used. The Socialist Party (PS) also announced this Wednesday evening that it would vote for it. On the far right, the National Rally – whose votes are needed to bring down the government – maintains pressure on the government. This notably pushed the executive to back down on the increase in electricity taxes on Thursday. But this is not enough for Marine Le Pen who has repeatedly threatened censorship in recent days.
In view of this uncertainty at the top of the State, Le Parisien suggests that you simulate the different coalitions that would bring down Michel Barnier, in the event that one parliamentary group or another votes for it. With two parliamentary seats currently vacant, the absolute majority is set at 288 votes.
Calendar-wise, the first window for a 49.3 will occur Monday, December 2 on the Social Security budget, it returning to the National Assembly after seven deputies and seven senators approved it Wednesday evening in the joint committee ( CMP). In this hypothesis, the motion of censure would most certainly be made immediately and the vote would take place two days later, namely on Wednesday, December 4.
