The end of year celebrations often evoke snowy landscapes, but in France, the probability of a Christmas in the snow is now very weak. The cause: climate changes which have made these episodes increasingly rare.
A reduced probability according to statistics
Current data shows that the chance of having snow in the plains on December 24 and 25 is tiny, around 1 to 5% depending on the region. In the mountains, these figures climb slightly to reach 10 to 20%but remain well below the collective memories of “white Christmases” of yesteryear. Since the 1950s, these snowy episodes have decreased significantly, and the months of December tend to be milder.
THE weather forecast for 2024 confirm this trend. Climate models, such as those from the Météo Chaîne or the GFS (Global Forecast System), predict a relatively warm month of December marked by anticyclonic conditions, further reducing the chances of seeing snowflakes fall.
Cold periods still possible
Although the trend is towards a mild climate, cold episodes remain possible. Models predict a potentially wetter than average December, particularly at the start of the month and around the holidays. If this precipitation coincides with a drop in temperatures, there could be some snowfall, but only localized and temporary.
The global warming has profoundly changed the winter climate in France. Global temperatures have increased, reducing the conditions needed for snow to form and stick to the ground. These transformations explain why “white Christmases” have become rare, including in regions that are usually cold.
A snowy Christmas, a fragile dream
For lovers of winter landscapes, the prospect of a White Christmas in 2024 seems improbable, but not totally excluded. The final forecasts will become clearer a few days before New Year's Eve. In the meantime, it is still possible to rediscover the atmosphere of snowy Christmases in mountain resorts or thanks to festive decorations which do not depend on the climate.
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