In a poll published this Friday, November 29, Rachida Dati came first in the first round of municipal elections in two tested scenarios. In a third, the one where she would leave her place to Gabriel Attal, the list led by the former Prime Minister would be first. Rémi Féraud and the PS come second in each hypothesis.
The deadline is in a year and a half. And yet, polls are starting to pour in to try to predict who will replace Anne Hidalgo in the large office of Paris City Hall.
After giving up running for a third term on November 26, the mayor of Paris opened the way for a fierce, long, and somewhat fratricidal municipal campaign for the Parisian left.
In a poll carried out for Le Figaro and Sud Radio and published this Friday, November 29, the Ifop-Fiducial institute reveals the voting intentions of Parisians for the first round in March 2026.
In all cases, the senator from Paris and president of the Paris group in common on the municipal council, Rémi Féraud, comes in second position. In front of him, the disappointed candidate in 2020, now Minister of Culture and still mayor of the 7th arrondissement: Rachida Dati.
A first hypothesis with an LR list
Conducted among a sample of 931 people registered on the electoral lists, this Ifop survey draws three possible scenarios. The first, with a Les Républicains list and with Rémi Féraud as the only candidate of the Socialist Party, hypothetically chosen by Parisian activists to the chagrin of Emmanuel Grégoire.
In this scenario, Rachida Dati, in an expanded list including Renaissance, Modem and Horizons, is credited with 29% voting intention. Rémi Féraud, supported by an alliance between the PS and the Communist Party, ranks second with 20%. In this hypothesis, which only refers to the first round, the Ecologists, led by David Belliard as in 2020, chose to maintain a single candidacy and are credited with 13% of voting intentions.
Next come La France insoumise and Sofia Chikirou with 11%. The LR list, led by Francis Szpiner, reached 9%, that of the National Rally of Thierry Mariani 8% and finally Sara Knafo for Reconquête is credited with 4.5% of voting intentions.
What if Gabriel Attal got involved?
But in the distant future, a former Prime Minister could significantly reshuffle the cards: Gabriel Attal. Although he is not yet a candidate, he is nevertheless a favorite in an Ipsos poll carried out for our colleagues from Le Parisien and published on Sunday November 17.
If this is not a poll of voting intentions, for 42% of respondents, the former Macronist Prime Minister would make a good mayor, ahead of Rachida Dati.
In the survey published by Le Figaro, the latter, investing in place of Rachida Dati and supported by the Renaissance list, Modem, Horizons and even Les Républicains, comes well ahead of voting intentions with 35%.
He would once again be followed by Rémi Féraud with 18%, then David Belliard and his 15%, Sofia Chikirou with 10%. Behind, the RN candidate Thierry Mariani would achieve a significant score in Paris: 10.5%.
Rachida Dati at the highest without LR list and Gabriel Attal
Third and final hypothesis, that of a candidacy by Rachida Dati, supported by the presidential camp and her own historic party Les Républicains. In this scenario, the mayor of the 7th arrondissement achieves her best score: 37%.
Rémi Féraud once again follows behind with 21% of voting intentions, just like David Belliard with 13%. Sofia Chikirou finished in fourth place, followed by Thierry Mariani and Sara Knafo.
In the first hypothesis, for the Parisian left to take over the head of Paris for a fifth consecutive term, the PS-PC list and the Ecologists will have to join forces. A desire of the two candidates declared for the moment Rémi Féraud and Emmanuel Grégoire.
Second hypothesis, the one where Gabriel Attal comes first, if they joined forces, the PS-PC and Ecologist lists would not come first in the second round. Insoumise Sofia Chikirou should call to vote for the nominated candidate. For the moment nothing has been done, since Rémi Féraud and Emmanuel Grégoire do not want to hear about an alliance with LFI.
Finally, same scenario as stated previously for the third hypothesis. To hope to beat Rachida Dati, the four left-wing parties will have to find common ground.
Martin Regley Journalist
