Divergent forecasts for 2025 | Allnews

Now, it is a recovery in global demand that will have to stimulate the economy in Switzerland.

According to the available high-frequency data series, economic dynamics strengthened further in the second quarter. In May, the monthly economic index of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) reached its highest level since December 2022. Driven by falling mortgage rates, the SNB’s key rate cut in March has already reached the real economy. The second rate cut adopted in June will further reduce financing costs for investors in Switzerland. In our view, the SNB’s monetary policy stance is no longer restrictive. From now on, it is a recovery in global demand that will have to stimulate the economy in Switzerland. From the beginning of the year, we estimated that the growing geopolitical unrest would limit the recovery potential in the medium term. In France, economic policy uncertainty is palpable. In Europe, we expect – in the best-case scenario – a return to growth rates close to potential. This relatively cautious forecast also explains why our forecast for Swiss GDP growth for the coming year is significantly lower than the consensus.

Our inflation forecast for 2025 also differs significantly from the consensus. This is due to a decline in economic momentum in our growth scenario, an expected fall in prices from electricity suppliers and rents for existing leases that will not increase. We also expect the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro to continue. The pressure from imported inflation should therefore recede in the coming months.

Actions: Stock Market Performance Overview

Suisse

  • Swiss stocks performed better than European stocks with the new surprise rate cut by the SNB.
  • This market is the most expensive, behind the American one.

Eurozone

  • The announcement of early legislative elections in France after the victory of the extreme right in the European elections weighed on European stocks.
  • The market valuation is almost neutral.

UNITED STATES

  • The market continued its upward trajectory in June. At close to 15% since January, the performance is well above our high estimate of 7% for 2024.
  • The market was mainly driven by good quarterly results and upward revision of profit forecasts.
  • As last year, year-to-date performance varies greatly across styles and sectors. Value stocks gained 7.3%, growth stocks gained 22.2%. Up 24.9%, the momentum style is the best performer since January. The rally remains the preserve of very large caps, while small caps are up only 0.9%.
  • The US market is expensive, and its valuation remains much higher than that of all others.

Emerging Markets

  • A mixed picture: the Chinese market has rebounded by +6.9% since January, the Brazilian market has recorded -18%.

United Kingdom

  • Ahead of the general election on July 4, the British market closed the month slightly down.
  • It still benefits from a low valuation.
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