The National Rally is credited with 36% of voting intentions two days before the first round of the legislative elections, according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche published this Friday, June 28. The New Popular Front is in second place and outpaces the presidential camp, which could lose more than 140 seats in the National Assembly.
Will Jordan Bardella be at Matignon in mid-July? Two days before the first round of the legislative elections, the National Rally and its allies are well ahead in voting intentions, according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV and La Tribune Dimanche published this Friday, June 28. The far-right formation occupies first place with 36%, ahead of the New Popular Front (27.5%) which progressed slightly (0.5%) in one week.
In third place, Ensemble pour la République is stable, with 20% of voting intentions. As for the Republicans, 9% of respondents indicate that they will vote for them on Sunday June 30.
Based on this survey, the Elabe Institute projects that the National Rally could obtain a solid relative majority, or even an absolute majority: the far-right party would be the leading force in the National Assembly with a number of seats between 260 and 295.
As the second force in the Palais Bourbon, the New Popular Front would obtain 155 to 175 seats, while the presidential camp would suffer heavy losses. Elabe projects that the coalition Together for the Republic would obtain between 85 and 105 seats, compared to 245 today.
These projections should, however, be taken with caution, as the composition of the second rounds in the 577 constituencies is not yet known. Especially since certain political parties have given voting instructions: the New Popular Front groups have called for blocking the far right in the second round.
Voting instructions poorly followed
But, according to the Elabe survey, 53% of potential voters of the New Popular Front do not intend to follow the voting instructions. A higher rate for voters in the presidential camp (70%) and the National Rally (80%).
Thus, according to Elabe, only 26% of French people would intend to follow the voting instructions they receive during the second round. “If their candidate qualifies for the second round by coming in third place, the majority of voters in the three main coalitions refuse to let him withdraw to ‘block'”, the institute also notes.
In detail, 31% of voters in the presidential camp want their candidate to withdraw to “block” the RN (25% to “block” the New Popular Front). The Republican front is stronger on the left: 40% of voters in the New Popular Front want a candidate to withdraw “to block the RN” if he comes in third place.
Sample of 2,004 people, representative of residents of metropolitan France aged 18 and over, including 1,871 registered on the electoral rolls. Online survey from June 26 to 27, 2024.
The representativeness of the sample was ensured using the quota method applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region of residence and agglomeration category.
For voting intention questions, only people registered on the electoral roll and intending to vote are taken into account.
Margin of error between 1.0 and 2.6 percentage points.
