5th constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes: a boulevard for the re-election of Christelle d’Intorni (LR-RN)?

5th constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes: a boulevard for the re-election of Christelle d’Intorni (LR-RN)?
5th constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes: a boulevard for the re-election of Christelle d’Intorni (LR-RN)?

Are the chips decided? Is Christelle d’Intorni sure of being re-elected in a constituency won handily, two years ago, against outgoing MP Marine Brenier? From an accounting perspective, it seems so.

By adding the 2022 votes of the LR, the RN and Reconquête!, the candidate now labeled LR/Union of Rights would even come close to being elected in the first round with 48.63% of the votes. A boulevard seems to present itself in front of the one who, without hesitation, followed her mentor, Éric Ciotti, in his alliance with the party of Jordan Bardella.

The inventory

Christelle d’Intorni affirms this. On the ground, people understand his approach to rapprochement with the National Rally, which made, in the 5e constituency, 40.27% for Europeans.

“You know, I have a track record. I spent two years working closely with the residents of my constituency. The voters are not fooled”she recently confided to Nice morning. In front of her, exit Marine Brenier, MP from 2016 to 2022.

His main rival will be the assistant to the Collines Nice region, Gaël Nofri. In the lead, the reconquest of a historically Estrosist constituency, shared between the coast (two-thirds of Nice voters) and the mountains.

Challenges

Can the candidate of the presidential majority reverse the trend in the valleys that he frequently crisscrosses during the numerous patron saint festivals? Can the mobilization of the Nice municipal majority, from Moulins to Saint-Isidore, pay off? Benefiting, in particular, from the aura of the Nice elected official Monique Bailet, the deputy for the Nice West territory, replacing Gaël Nofri.

A complementary pair but also a reflection of the presidential majority. And that’s where it gets stuck. During the European elections, the presidential party capped at 13.03% in Nice. With a score well below in most villages.

So yes, Gaël Nofri could worry Christelle d’Intorni in the first round if some of the disappointed LR voters slip a ballot in his favor.

But in the event of a second round, it is difficult to imagine that the votes of the New Popular Front and other left-wing candidates (23% in 2022) would go to the presidential party. “It is the rejection of the government and the president that ended up like this at the polls”analyzed the mayor of Roubion in 2022. A rejection which has become more pronounced.

The weight of the 2022 ballot

It is an understatement to say that this first round does not have at all the same configuration as two years ago. But the results at the time seemed to lean more in favor of the outgoing MP. Without an RN candidate facing it (19% in 2022), union of the rights obliges, and in the absence of the candidate Reconquest! Cédric Vella (7.15%) who gave him his support, Christelle d’Intorni can easily exceed 40%. Unless it loses part of the LR electorate (22.48% in 2022). Nothing is less sure…

What will be debated

In this constituency which includes the Moulins district, west of Nice, there is no doubt that the security issue will be at the heart of the debates. Will the issues linked to rurality, such as medical deserts, the works of storm Alex – and the legal cases which have emerged since –, the extension of the airport or even construction on the Plaine du Var be once again addressed?


The 5th constituency of the Alpes-Maritimes brings together 28 municipalities: part of Nice (the west) and 27 villages, from the Var plain, Vésubie and Tinée.

Find the 5th constituency debate this Monday at 6 p.m. on our website and social networks, recorded in the Nice-Matin studio.

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