Global warming: this is what the weather will look like in Strasbourg in 2100, according to Météo France

“What will my municipality have to adapt to on the horizon? 2100in France at +4°C?“. To try to answer this question, Météo France has set up Climadiag Communea tool available free online and which “offers a summary of information essential for adaptation via a list of targeted climate indicators« .

Here is what emerges for Strasbourg (Bas-Rhin).

Preamble

Before going any further, however, let us clarify, as Météo France does, that “ four indicator values are almost systematically presented. Here they are :

Rising temperatures for all seasons

This clarification made, let’s start with the average temperature per season forecast in 2100 in Strasbourg :

“At the scale of the Francethe average annual temperature will increase by more than 3.5°C by 2100 compared to the recent climate, this warming being more marked in summer than in winter,” recalls Météo France.

The Grand Est being a continental region, and therefore less ventilated than Brittany for example, global warming is more rapid there.

No more rain in winter

Let’s move on to an indicator that has been particularly in the news in recent weeks: rain.

“Across France, the annual cumulative precipitation will change little by 2100but a moderate to strong drop in summer and a moderate to strong increase in winter are however likely over the majority of the country,” explains Météo France in its summary.

Increased natural risks?

In the category of “ natural hazards » now, here are some data delivered by Météo France:

• In 2100, the number of days with a significant risk of vegetation fire could be 13 in a pessimistic scenario, 3 according to the median value and 0 according to the low value, compared to 1 over the reference period.
• In 2100, the number of days with dry ground in summer could oscillate between 77 (high value), 58 (median value) and 47 (low value), against 48 over the reference period.

Between 4 and 14 very hot days per year in Strasbourg in 2100

In the category ” health » :

• In 2100, the annual number of very hot days (that’s to say above 35 degrees) in Strasbourg could reach 14 (high value), 7 (median value) or 4 (low value), compared to 0 over the reference period.
• The annual number of warm nights (>20°C) should be between 30 and 46, compared to 5 over the reference period.
• Annual number of days in heat wave : 31 (high value) / 18 (median value) / 13 (low value) | 2 (reference value).
• Annual number of days in cold spell : 3 (high value) / 1 (median value) / 0 (low value) | 5 (reference value).

If you want to see the indicators for your municipality, go here.

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