Legislative elections 2024: in Aude, after a crazy week, time for the blitzkrieg campaign for 25 candidates

Legislative elections 2024: in Aude, after a crazy week, time for the blitzkrieg campaign for 25 candidates
Legislative elections 2024: in Aude, after a crazy week, time for the blitzkrieg campaign for 25 candidates

After a week marked by the Audoise repercussions of the crises which tore apart the national political scene following the European elections and the dissolution, it is time to campaign for the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7. With a “casting” reduced to 25 candidates, 10 fewer than in 2022. And many questions which accompany the meeting of the 1st round in the three constituencies of the department.

After the astonishment, the excitement

Sunday June 9. In Aude, the results of Europeans are falling, commune after commune. Confirming the national trend outlined at 8 p.m. With the National Rally (RN) far ahead. Very far ahead. Even more than on a national scale, since the Bardella list will end the evening with 40.57% in Aude. For departmental party leaders, with the exception of Maxime Bot (RN) filled by a “new era that is dawning”the time has come for astonishment.

Before reacting to the other thunderbolt, the dissolution of the Assembly and the convening of legislative elections on June 30 and July 7. Starting point for a crazy week. In Aude, the aftershocks of national political earthquakes are being felt. Among the Republicans, whose Aude president Bernard Tondereau quickly denounced the alliance with the RN advocated by Eric Ciotti. At Reconquest, where the exclusion of Marion Maréchal convinces Axel Roulliaux to give up his candidacy on the 1D circo, and to call to vote for the outgoing RN Christophe Barthès. In the ranks of the left, too: while waiting for the white smoke of the New Popular Front to rise from Paris, the parties are working hard.

At the PS Aude, on June 11, we send the applications approved by the federal office to the national level. On the 2e, Nicolas Sainte-Cluque, designated, will ultimately be the substitute for the elected EELV Viviane Thivent. For the 1D, a choice must be made between Sophie Courrière-Calmon, candidate in 2022, and Valérie Dumontet, Lézignan vice-president of the Department, finally appointed. In vain, since the territory will be allocated to LFI.

Before the surprise of the leader, Friday June 14, and the appointment of the spokesperson for the New Anticapitalist Party, Philippe Poutou: a choice which triggers the wrath of the PS, and will lead to the candidacy of the PRG Aurélien Turchetto. Last twist in this circle of all possibilities. Where the former MP and PS mayor of Carcassonne, Jean-Claude Perez, will wear the colors of the presidential majority. Meanwhile, on Thursday June 13, the three outgoing RNs proudly posed for social networks in front of the prefecture, where they submitted their applications.

A necessarily reduced cast

Nine candidates out of 1D constituency (Carcassonne-Lézignan), eight on the 2e (Narbonne) as on the 3e (Carcassonne-Castelnaudary-Limoux). This Sunday, June 16, at 6 p.m., the Aude prefecture formalized the “casting” of the legislative elections of June 30 and July 7. There will therefore be 25 for three seats, with five “parties” able to engage in all the circos: the RN, the New Popular Front, the presidential majority, and Reconquest. But also Lutte Ouvrière, as in 2022 (by collecting between 0.64% and 1.52% of the votes). A short list, if we think of the 38 ballots which, just a week ago, were submitted to the voters’ choice for the Europeans. 25 contenders, or ten candidates fewer than in 2022. For the 1D times in the 21ste century in six legislative elections (2002, 2007, 2012, 2017, 2022, and therefore 2024), no circo will have more than 10 contenders for the seat of deputy. We have to go back to 1993, with nine candidates out of 1D and 3eand eight on the 2eto find traces of such a “modest” commitment.

You don’t have to be a great cleric to understand the reasons. Between the alliance on the left and the tempo of the election, with a short week given to be able to mobilize, the pool of potential candidates has reduced. As in 2022, on the 3eThe Republicans cannot align themselves with one circus: it will be the 2ein 2024. A party whose Aude president points out the upcoming lightning campaign: “The period is too short, we are depriving the parties of speaking.” The declared candidates did not wait in any case: from the Espéraza market, Wednesday, for RN Julien Rancoule, to the Halles de Narbonne, this Sunday, for EELV Viviane Thivent, the markets saw the contenders parade.

What scenario on June 30?

From Monday June 10, the outgoing 3eJulien Rancoule, expressed his hopes: “Normally, a legislative session gives a bonus to the winner of the presidential election. Here, the bonus is for us, with the Europeans.” To be continued. Because between a one-round proportional European list vote and a national legislative election using two-round single-member majority voting, the gap is yawning.

Especially since before winning the seat or renewing their mandate on July 7, the candidates will have to pass the 1er round, and these 12.5% ​​of registrants required to qualify for 2n/a. In 2022, on the 2e circo, only the RN Frédéric Falcon had crossed the threshold, and the outgoing deputy of the presidential majority Alain Perea had only joined the second round as the candidate having obtained the greatest number of votes after him. 12.5%: a threshold which could, given the low number of candidates, be easier to reach by June 30, 2024.

But for this to happen it would also be necessary for abstention not to reach the peaks of 2022, with up to 51.59% recorded on 1er tour on the Narbonnaise district. An unknown, among others, and as many questions: will the Aude RN confirm its rank of 1er left the department? Will the union of the left help tip the scales? Will the presidential majority be able to bounce back, two years after losing its three Aude seats? Response(s) in two weeks. Before a second round where, one assumes, the words of Aragon, decidedly popular during the electoral period, should once again be in vogue: “When the wheat is under the hail Fool who acts delicate Fool who thinks of his quarrels At the heart of the common fight.”

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