what Trump’s election means for Switzerland

For political expert Michael Hermann, Donald Trump’s victory clearly benefits right-wing populist forces in Europe. Switzerland should especially feel the consequences of a Russian advance in Ukraine.

Reto Wattenhofer / ch media

The next president of the United States is Donald Trump. How important is this election to us?
Michael Hermann: This victory has above all an impact on the general atmosphere. In Switzerland too, we have closely followed the electoral campaign in recent months. Wednesday morning, we woke up with a feeling of déjà vu.

Despite everything, according to polls, a large majority of the Swiss population opposes Trump. The consternation is therefore all the greater.

To what extent?
American citizens chose someone who did not want to accept his defeat four years ago and who used every lever to manipulate the outcome of the election. During his first term, he expressed his great admiration for the autocrats of this world.

The election in the United States, one of the largest democracies, of a leader who we do not know if he is closer to autocrats than to his democratic partners, is cause for concern.

Populism has therefore triumphed. What impact does this have on our political culture?
There is a risk of imitation. This victory suggests that it is possible to reward bad behavior instead of punishing it. Donald Trump got away with it, despite his sexism and racism.

However, I see an important nuance. With Trump, it was the image of so-called strong men that won. And this figure of “strong men” has difficulty establishing itself in the Swiss political system.

For what?
If only because we have seven equal federal councilors. A figure with authoritarian traits can never present himself advantageously. Our system and our political culture are immune to overly dominant personalities. It was Christoph Blocher who came closest to this role – with the ending that we know. And after his dismissal, the dean of the UDC did not achieve a Trump-style comeback.

But the UDC still sees itself boosted by this victory at the polls.
Yes. Initially, his victory benefited the right-wing forces. Because the principle is that he who wins is right. But this should rather have an impact on the way of doing politics than on the share of votes. Even without Trump, the SVP is currently exploiting its own potential well.

But, in the medium term, the tide could turn.

For what?
Trump is a wake-up call, especially in Western Europe, where people have a different point of view and many contest it. The Socialist Party saw a sharp increase in membership after its election victory in 2016. It goes even further: Europe then experienced one of its most progressive phases.

Do we already know the real political consequences for Switzerland?
With Trump, and his irregularity, the risk that things get out of hand is very real, including on the economic level, especially since he has majorities in both chambers. He now no longer denies himself anything and, unlike in 2016, he has dismissed those who criticized him internally.

If Trump weakens NATO as he announced, Europe will have to invest more in security and the army. Will Switzerland also have to contribute?
The war in Ukraine indeed hangs over our heads like a sword of Damocles. But I doubt that Switzerland will rearm further.

Why not?
The debate risks getting bogged down, as has already been seen on this subject. Many keep in mind that we are in the heart of Europe, and very happy to have friendly countries around us.

The military lobby is also less powerful than many others. There are many interests and divergent ideas. Especially at this time when the Confederation must make savings.

So the coming to power of Putin’s “friend” will have no consequences for Switzerland?
There is a very real risk that Russia will feel emboldened to continue its advance into western Ukraine. Especially if Trump carries out his threat and reduces his financial support for kyiv. If this happens, millions of additional people would flee the country, which would have very serious repercussions for Switzerland.

It would also increase pressure in Switzerland on Ukrainians seeking protection.
Indeed. Already today, the bourgeois parties want to tighten the screw and be able to send these refugees back under certain conditions. The UDC goes furthest in this direction.

If the new US administration indirectly encourages Russia to make progress in Ukraine, the refugee issue will worsen at home. It’s that simple. And an increase in migration has never hurt the SVP politically.

(French adaptation: Valentine Zenker)

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