Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States, an announcement that raises various fears in Europe and France.
Donald Trump was declared the winner of the American election by the Associated Press agency and becomes the 47th president of the United States. Emmanuel Macron welcomed the victory of his counterpart on X: “Congratulations President Donald Trump. Ready to work together as we have been able to do for four years. of prosperity. The return of the billionaire will not be without consequences for France and Europe. The French president's second tweet clearly proves that he is already anticipating tensions: “I have just spoken with Chancellor Olaf Scholz. We will work for a more united, stronger, more sovereign Europe in this new context. By cooperating with the United States of America and defending our interests and values.”
This victory worries Europe on several aspects. First of all, from an international policy point of view, the American president has never hidden his hostility towards the way NATO is run. He has often put pressure on European countries, accusing them of not investing enough in their military defense. The contribution of the United States is one of the largest in NATO: 16.34% in 2024. Even partial withdrawal by the Americans could also encourage other powers, such as Russia or China, to be more aggressive. in their international policies.
Another fear: the reduction of American aid to Ukraine, working in favor of Vladimir Putin. Without his means, Volodymyr Zelensky could be forced to negotiate with Russia quickly, on very unsatisfactory conditions, and without the principle of border sovereignty being firmly defended. Donald Trump could seek to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, to the detriment of Ukraine. He had, in fact, promised to “resolve the conflict within 24 hours” if he was elected.
The European economy in danger?
On the economic side, trade tensions could worsen with the appearance of new taxes on European imports. During his campaign, Donald Trump affirmed his desire to impose customs surcharges of 10 to 20% on all products imported into the United States, a significant increase given the 3.3% applied on average to date overseas. Atlantic. A crisis that is “deadly for Europe”, predicted Thierry Breton, former European Commissioner for the Internal Market, on BFMTVin the event of Donald Trump’s return.
“The election of Trump is not good news for Europe. It means an increase in protectionism, with a considerable increase in customs duties,” explained Christian de Boissieu, professor of economics at the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne Figaro. François Hollande had even assured BFMTV that in the event of Trump's election, there would be in France “an increase in unemployment, lower growth and even perhaps higher inflation, because there will be a very significant American budget deficit and no doubt a monetary policy that will accompany it, because we must finance the American deficit.”
Last important aspect, that of ecology. Donald Trump could decide to withdraw the United States from the Paris agreements, towards which he has always been unfavorable. Donald Trump's climate skeptic positions could “break any effort at coordination around energy and climate policy issues, and also break efforts to reduce our emissions and to jointly control climate change”, warned on Franceinfo Sébastien Jean, associate director at the French Institute of International Relations. In his program, Donald Trump wants, on the contrary, to favor oil drilling, to fill stocks, and the use of fossil fuels.
