These documents were awaited for months. The government published its energy and climate roadmaps on Monday, November 4, a few days after the publication of the new National Adaptation Plan. How many nuclear power plants, wind turbines and solar panels are built? What are the objectives for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, responsible for global warming? How to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050? These are the questions that the multi-year energy programming text (PPE) and the third version of the National Low-Carbon Strategy (SNBC 3) intend to answer.
The first is the tool specifying French energy policy for the next ten years, and therefore details, among other things, the acceleration to be implemented on renewable energies and the relaunch of nuclear power in order to free the country from its dependence on fossil fuels. The second describes the trajectory of French emissions mitigation, by sector, to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement and European objectives. “This set of texts will, finally, allow us to complete the renewal of our ecological ambition”defended the Minister of Ecological Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher. These two texts, put out for public consultation until December 15, will then be subject to feedback from the National Commission for Public Debate and the High Council for the Climate, before being published by decree during the course of the year 2025, without discussions in the National Assembly. Here's what we can take away from it.
A confirmed objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030
This is the “big point to remember from the third edition of the National Low-Carbon Strategy”according to the office of Agnès Pannier-Runacher. The text sets the objective of reducing our gross greenhouse gas emissions by 50% between 1990 and 2030. This objective corresponds to the French share of the effort to reduce emissions imposed by European legislation – a reduction of 55 % on a continental scale. To reach it, “we must reduce our emissions by 5% each year between 2022 and 2030, compared to an annual reduction of 2% on average from 2017 to 2022”specifies the ministry.
“It’s an objective that we think is tenable, France is on the right trajectory. The idea is to continue the measures in progress, their implementation”commented the minister's office, although budget reductions were announced on several mechanisms of the Ministry of Ecological Transition. “These are subjects on which we are very attentive. We must maintain the dynamic, make better use of the envelopes we have”replies the minister's office, pointing to a “real targeting issue”.
The reduction mentioned concerns territorial emissions, eliminating emissions due to the consumption of imported goods and services. “The final version of the third SNBC will set an objective for reducing our carbon footprint by 2050, in addition to objectives for reducing territorial emissions”however, underlines the text.
The absorption capacity of forests and soils in the red taken into account
The announced 50% reduction in French greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 concerns gross emissions, and therefore does not include the absorption of carbon by forests and soils. However, in recent years, French forests are paying an increasingly heavy price in the face of global warming. “It seems that the dynamic of carbon sinks in the French forest (…) is diminishing, marked in particular by droughts and diseases which lead to excess tree mortality and a reduction in their growth”notes the National Low-Carbon Strategy.
A drop in carbon absorption than the previous SNBC had “not anticipated”notes the text. This new version therefore had to revise downwards this “compensation” of our greenhouse gas emissions. While it defines carbon budgets, i.e. emission ceilings to meet its long-term objectives, SNBC 3 largely reduces the capacity of the sector, from 42 to 9 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per year absorbed for period 2024-2028 and from 46 to 18 for the years 2029 to 2033. “The government will continue and expand its action to preserve this well”promises SNBC.
Abandoning fossil fuels for a more carbon-free mix
“By 2050, no energy should come from fossil fuels” which are oil, gas and coal, establishes the multi-annual energy programming (PPE). The documents thus provide a “plan” for each type of energy production, which has long been requested by players in the energy sectors. Both on the construction of new nuclear reactors and the expansion of renewable energies.
For nuclear power, the government wants to reach a production level of 360 to 400 terawatt hours (TWh) per year, notably through the launch of the construction of six second generation EPRs, the text recalls. Concerning renewable energies, the PPE provides for a “strong increase in the current rate of deployment” of photovoltaic electricity, moving to an objective of “54 to 60 gigawatts (GW) in 2030, compared to a target of between 35 and 44 gigawatts in 2028 in the previous PPE”.
As for onshore wind power, the PPE defends a “maintaining the current rate of 1.5 gigawatts per year”. The government had also previously lifted the veil, on October 18, on the deployment of offshore wind power: around fifty wind farms are planned on all the maritime coasts of France, to reach 18 GW of capacity installed in 2035 and 45 GW in 2050. Against only 1.5 GW currently.
“The ambition of the PPE is clear: to achieve a historic transition, moving from an energy consumption model that is still largely carbon-intensive – 60% in 2022 – to a 60% carbon-free model by 2030, with further objectives more ambitious for 2035″explains Olga Givernet, the Minister for Energy. The French electricity mix would, according to the PPE, involve a reduction in the share of nuclear power in favor of renewable energies.
Renovate 400,000 houses and 200,000 collective housing units per year by 2030
The second axis of the PPE is “controlling consumption with sobriety and energy efficiency”Olga Givernet emphasized at the end of October in Les Echos. The PPE highlights a drop in energy consumption over the next ten years, an element “essential for achieving our climate objectives”, argues the text.
“France must therefore aim for a final energy consumption of 1,243 TWh in 2030, which corresponds to a reduction in final energy consumption of 28.6% over the period 2012-2030”we can read in detail. “It is necessary to double the overall rate of reduction”which was 10.7% between 2012 and 2022, underlines the text.
The PPE mentions several actions, such as the renovation of 400,000 houses and 200,000 collective housing units per year by 2030. Or an annual reduction in the energy consumption of public bodies by 1%, the continuity of the sobriety gestures put in place during the winter of 2022-2023, or even the sustainability of energy savings certificates.
The ambition to sell two thirds of electric cars in 2030
The “clean mobility development strategy”, an annex document to the PPE, intends to decarbonize the leading French sector emitting greenhouse gases. “Transport represents 32% of greenhouse gas emissions. They therefore constitute a third of the problem, but also a third of the solution”according to François Durovray, Minister for Transport. The strategy aims in particular at the objective, in 2030, of 66% sales of electric cars, which would represent 15% of the vehicle fleet.
Since the 19th century, the Earth's average temperature has warmed by 1.1°C. Scientists have established with certainty that this increase is due to human activities, which consume fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas). This warming, unprecedented in its speed, threatens the future of our societies and biodiversity. But solutions – renewable energies, sobriety, reduced meat consumption – exist. Discover our answers to your questions about the climate crisis.
