A book predicts a Morocco-Algeria war among the 11 conflict scenarios destabilizing world peace

A book predicts a Morocco-Algeria war among the 11 conflict scenarios destabilizing world peace
A book predicts a Morocco-Algeria war among the 11 conflict scenarios destabilizing world peace

In a 240-page book, journalist Alexandra Saviana, who works for the French weekly L’Express, imagines the scenario of a war between Morocco and Algeria. It would be short-lived, and France would fear that the conflict would be exported to its soil.

It is no surprise that the French essayist imagines in his story that the war between Rabat and Algiers beginsrait at the initiative of Algeria, as modeled on the war of Sands. His book titled “The dark scenarios of the French army. Understanding the threats that await us”, foresees a Morocco-Algeria war which would end in a cease-fire.

The author, who edited her story based on her interviews with more than 106 experts and geopolitologists, is categorical. A war between Morocco and Algeria is a probability that must be taken into account, it is among the 11 conflicts and situations that will disrupt world order and peace.

The book, published on May 16, is written in the present tense, as if the events were happening at that time. She imagines an intrusion by the Algerian army towards Figuig, in the Moroccan South-East, where the two countries continue to maintain borders that are not so clear because of the oases and date plantations.

The war should begin with an incursion by the Algerian army which would cause deaths on the Moroccan military side, enough to trigger a Moroccan response. Morocco will argue that Algeria will have affected its territorial integrity, she predicts.

In his scenario, Algerian armored vehicles would attempt on August 17 to occupy the Figuig oasis in Morocco. “The territory, landlocked between Morocco and Algeria, is a hotbed of tensions between the two countries. Soldiers are now blocking the passage of Moroccan date farmers, who walk daily to this location to reach their orchards,” she writes.

“Unlike previous crises – the border has been officially closed since 1994 but a pass exists for farmers – the Algerian army would have given no indication before its intervention,” adds the author, predicting that on August 22, a unit of 35 Algerian soldiers “introduced into Moroccan territory in the early morning. Gunfire is exchanged at the border. The toll is heavy: three Moroccan soldiers are killed, and 11 injured, while four deaths and 18 injured are to be counted on the Algerian side.

She thus plans a diplomatic ballet to calm the two regional powers, but the escalation would continue. “Rabat denounces an + unacceptable intrusion + which threatens the integrity of its territory. Algeria and Morocco go to war”, she says in her story.

“Ten days later, the conflict became bloody and short-lived. An incursion by Algerian armored vehicles near Oujda, the capital of eastern Morocco, ended in a resounding failure. The Moroccans destroy around fifteen Algerian battle tanks. Algiers counts 30 deaths in its ranks, while Rabat’s losses remain low. she continues.

And to add: “A ceasefire is established between the two countries thanks to the mediation of Egypt. But the collective relief is short-lived. As a result of this defeat, the Algerian regime is greatly weakened.

She imagines that Algeria will also want to attack France. “Out of breath, the Algerian regime would decide this time to cast shame on France and attack it militarily in turn,” writes the journalist.

“Weakened, power (in Algeria) is contested by political factions hostile to France, who present Paris as an enemy to be fought to achieve the unification of a fractured Algerian nation. […] On November 16, the Algerian president accused France of +malvolence+ and assured that he was ready to +defend the homeland+. The next day, Iskander missiles supplied by Moscow were fired into the Mediterranean Sea as part of an impromptu exercise. can we read in his story.



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