30 days: the ingredients are there for severe weather in Quebec

30 days: the ingredients are there for severe weather in Quebec
30 days: the ingredients are there for severe weather in Quebec

Published on May 15, 2024 at 9:24 p.m.

One word to describe the next 30 days in Quebec. Forecast.


In short:


Opposing issues

The elements seem to be getting into position for an eventful storm season in Quebec. In fact, at the time of writing these lines, the province has already accumulated ten stormy days since May 1, which almost corresponds to the average for the entire month. The atmospheric context would be conducive to precipitation as well as violent weather. While the west of the country finds itself in the middle of an anticyclonic ridge, the trajectory of the jet stream forms a trough to the north of La Belle Province. The first region will have to monitor fires, the other storms.

“The weather conditions over the next few weeks will be changeable with a touch of summer,” explains Réjean Ouimet, meteorologist. No prolonged good weather in sight. The weather regime which prevents extreme heat from taking hold in Quebec will also allow structured disturbances to continue to appear. »

Favorable context

The presence of cold air at altitude constitutes the main element which could create situations conducive to thunderstorm activity during the coming weeks. The contrast in air masses fuels the risk of instability and Quebec has already experienced its share of days with storms since the start of the month. May kicks off the season with an average of a dozen stormy days. In June, it’s almost 20. With such a dominant atmospheric context, we should expect to have more.

“The time it will take for the season to settle in, we will have to deal with this type of uncertain weather,” insists Réjean Ouimet. And as the weather gets warmer, the risk of severe storms developing will increase. The dome of cold air at altitude is a strong argument in favor of thunderstorms. »

PRECIP2

Watch out for fires!

According to the models, the context would be unfavorable for forest fires, which is obviously excellent news. The absence of extreme heat and prolonged drought is an important factor to consider. However, you will have to be wary of storms which can trigger fires on their own.

“This is one of the important causes of forest fires in Quebec,” continues Réjean Ouimet. Remember that lightning was largely responsible for triggering the fire season at the end of May and beginning of June 2023. However, this year’s storms would be less dry than those of 2023.”

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