The head of the National Bank welcomes recent government measures to reduce immigration to the country, but warns that it will take time before the effects are felt.
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“There is awareness, so that’s a good thing. But has it had an impact? Not yet. We feel that population growth is still very, very strong. The measures that we will put in place in 2025 will surely have an impact, but they have also accelerated growth this year. So that puts more pressure, at the moment, on the system,” said Laurent Ferreira during a telephone interview with The Journal, on the occasion of the inauguration of the institution’s new headquarters in Montreal.
“We cannot continue at this rate,” he added.
Nearly 485,000 immigrants in six months
Last year, 1.27 million people were added to Canada’s population – a 3.2 per cent increase that was the highest since 1957. In the first half of 2024, the country’s population grew by nearly 485,000 to surpass 41 million.
In Quebec, the population crossed the threshold of nine million people in the spring, but growth there was less marked than elsewhere in the country.
Faced with growing concerns, particularly regarding housing, Ottawa and Quebec have both announced restrictions on temporary immigration in recent weeks. In addition, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller has not ruled out lowering the target of 500,000 new permanent residents planned for next year.
Mr. Ferreira noted that a study published in January by the chief economist of the National Bank, Stéfane Marion, had contributed to the “awakening” of governments. It concluded that Canada was “caught in a demographic trap” that threatened “our economic well-being.”
The document “certainly had an impact and sparked, I think, discussions about our position on population growth as a country,” Ferreira said.
Laurent Ferreira on…
Online Fraud
The National Bank is doing enough to combat the many online frauds, the leader maintains. Last year, the institution was shaken by a series of phishing cases affecting SMEs. “I think we are doing a lot for our clients and we will continue to help them,” he insists.
“Every time we see threats, we remind our customers […] the importance of this issue and the distrust that we must have because fraudsters try to imitate the services of a bank, he specifies. They are very sophisticated.”
The risk of recession
“Soft landing” [ralentissement économique sans récession]I don’t believe it much, I think it’s going to be a little firmer. The job market is showing more and more weakness,” warns Laurent Ferreira when asked if he foresees a recession in Quebec.
“We still have uncertainty about inflation and the impact of rate cuts will not be felt this fall. It will take another good 12 months,” he said, while predicting that Quebec, with its diversified economy and relatively affordable real estate market, will be “more resilient” than other provinces.
The Mortgage Shock
“I don’t see a crisis,” Ferreira insists. “About 60% of our clients have already renewed their mortgages. We’ve often talked about our clients’ ability to adapt to the new reality and I think that will continue. I don’t have any major concerns about the real estate market and our clients’ ability to support higher rates right now.”
