United States | Trumpism has led to distrust of Canada

Once a week, we return to a significant subject in the world, thanks to the perspective and expertise of a researcher from the Center for International Studies and Research, University of Montreal, or the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, University of Quebec in Montreal.

As the United States has just experienced its most eventful political summer since 1968, some are wondering whether our enthusiasm in Canada and Quebec for the Trump-Harris duel is exaggerated.¹ We answer in the negative in our recent work entitled America first, Canada second.^⁠2

Taking stock of the uncertainties that have hung over Canada during the presidencies of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, we show that the billionaire’s close attention to Canada-US issues, his virulent attacks on Ottawa and his frequent questioning of the benefits of collaboration with Canada have left marks that have not disappeared during the Biden years and that will persist even if Kamala Harris wins on November 5.

Trump’s impact on Canada-US relations

Canada and the United States have a deeply asymmetrical relationship. Living alongside this country is “a bit like sleeping with an elephant,” said Pierre Elliott Trudeau, who added that the American neighbor is generally friendly, but that one risks being “affected by its every move and groan.” It’s hard to deny it since Donald Trump entered the 2016 presidential election!

Our field surveys, conducted between 2014 and 2024 in 11 states bordering Canada, in New England and in the Great Lakes region, have made it possible to empirically document the emergence and persistence of Trump’s impact on the way in which a host of political actors (local elected officials, voters, union leaders, etc.) perceive the relationship with Canada.

This impact has manifested itself, on the one hand, in a greater emphasis on Canadian-American “irritants” and, on the other hand, in a generally more suspicious, less conciliatory and more “transactional” vision of relations with Canada.

We have seen this on a multitude of subjects, from customs tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to the renegotiation of NAFTA (since replaced by CUSMA), including the construction of transmission lines to export Quebec hydroelectricity to the United States, Canada’s supply management system on dairy products and even lobster fishing.

The 11 case studies conducted by contributors to our book illustrate that Trump’s impact on the Canada-U.S. relationship has varied by region and issue. For example, groups opposed to Quebec hydroelectricity exports to Maine drew partly on Trumpist rhetoric to evoke the “dangers” of collaborating with Canada, but their intransigence was more reminiscent of similar movements observed in New Hampshire well before Trump’s election.

That said, Trump’s rejection of trade deals like NAFTA and his promises to bring back good jobs in Pennsylvania’s steel, Michigan’s auto and Wisconsin’s dairy sectors largely explain Biden and Harris’ protectionism toward Canada on the very issues Democrats see as essential to winning key states on Nov. 5.

Trump’s impact beyond 2024

The Biden-Harris administration has not, therefore, marked a complete break with Trumpism. Protectionism prevails in both major parties, as evidenced by Biden’s “foreign policy for the middle class,” which some have called “Trumpism with a human face,”³ more polite and diplomatic, but which aims just as much to protect American jobs against foreign competition, even that of the Canadian ally.

As November 5 approaches, the Canadian-American issues are certainly not the most salient in this electoral cycle marked by events with paranormal overtones, such as Biden’s withdrawal and the two assassination attempts on Trump!

Americans will nevertheless continue to pay attention to Canada beyond the 2024 presidential election: think of possible trade tariffs by Trump to force Canada to increase its military spending or of American demands during the upcoming CUSMA revision process in 2026.

Trump’s first term provides a good indication of the economic challenge facing Ottawa and Quebec if the billionaire takes over the White House. But Harris’ promises to protect American middle-class jobs, as well as her vote against CUSMA in the Senate during Trump’s presidency, indicate that Canada will have to continually renegotiate its relationship with the United States in the coming years, regardless of the outcome on November 5.

The elephant has rarely been more convinced that he must put America first and Canada second.

1. Listen to the 98.5 FM segment “Do the Quebec media talk too much about American politics?”

2. Frédérick Gagnon and Christophe Cloutier-Roy (dirs). America first, Canada secondMontreal, University of Montreal Press, 2024, 240 pages.

3. Read the CATO Institute article

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