Climate change is responsible for nearly a fifth of dengue cases, which will break new records in 2024, according to an American study published on Saturday aimed at further shedding light on the impact of rising temperatures on the spread of this disease.
To measure how climate change affects health, “dengue is a very good disease to study because it is very sensitive to climate,” Erin Mordecai, an ecologist specializing in infectious diseases at Stanford University, told AFP.
Transmitted by the bites of infected tiger mosquitoes, this viral disease, which can cause high fever and body aches, is generally mild but sometimes serious, even fatal.
19% of current dengue cases on average worldwide “are attributable to global warming”
Dengue is already endemic in more than 130 countries and with rising temperatures, the mosquito vectors are spreading beyond the tropical and subtropical areas where they were generally confined.
For this new study, presented at the annual meeting of the American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene but not yet peer-reviewed, a team of researchers looked at the incidence of dengue and climatic variations in 21 countries in Asia and the Americas.
They estimated that around 19% of current cases of dengue fever on average in the world “are attributable to global warming”, summarized Erin Mordecai, lead author of the study unveiled while the 29th conference on dengue is taking place in Azerbaijan. the UN climate.
13 million cases of dengue fever in the first eight months of 2024
Temperatures between 20 and 29°C are most conducive to the spread of the disease and endemic areas in this setting – parts of Peru, Mexico, Bolivia and Brazil – could see a rise of 150 to 200%. infections in the coming decades.
Globally, at least 257 million people currently live in areas where global warming could cause the incidence of dengue fever to double over the next 25 years. Over the first eight months of 2024, there were nearly 13 million cases of dengue fever, according to the World Health Organization, almost double the record recorded for all of 2023.
The real number is probably closer to 100 million given “massive under-reporting” of cases, notably due to lack of tests or symptoms, estimated Erin Mordecai. The study is also presented shortly after the start of a new epidemic in Guadeloupe, a French region in the Antilles.
In addition to climate change, the globalization of trade and travel as well as the advance of urbanization favor the spread of tiger mosquitoes. One promising approach to combating dengue fever involves introducing mosquitoes into the wild that are infected with bacteria that block the insect’s ability to transmit the virus.
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