How can we project ourselves into a rapidly changing world, under the effect of climate change? To act, you need to know. In the absence of knowledge, we must anticipate. Anticipating is the work of Cyril Caminade, climatologist.
In his theoretical physics laboratory in Trieste (Italy) financed by UNESCO, the scientist, who retains a slight southern accent from his childhood in Occitania, superimposes documents relating to the distribution on the climate evolution map. geographical distribution of insects that carry diseases, both human and animal, via mosquitoes, ticks, culicoides, etc.
With what impact on the risk of disease transmission to humans? This is also the challenge of research, which draws theoretical scenarios. “Do you remember the “R”, this reproduction rate of Covid which made it possible to predict the evolution of the epidemic? We work on this type of concepts that everyone understands”indicates Cyril Caminade.
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Trained in Toulouse, he saw, from his first post, in Liverpool, in the early 2010s, that the tiger mosquito, present then only on the Adriatic coast and recently infiltrated in the South-East in France and the Costa Brava in Spain, would invade a large part of Europe.
“I sometimes thought I was crazy”remembers Cyril Caminade when recalling past conferences. “Never in life”he was told when he announced the arrival of dengue here. “That didn’t stop me from making predictions.”
And today again, by 2050: “The tiger mosquito will migrate towards the north central of Europe and here, it will be so hot during the summer that we will be a little less bothered by the tiger mosquito, but perhaps it will be there in the spring and fall, even early winter.”
“We are not good every time, and at the moment, we have a lot of approximations”nuances the climatologist. The equation is complex because it is necessary to deal with other parameters, such as changes in population densities, interactions, travel.
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