Researchers predict early flu peak in Canada and United States

A team of Canadian and American researchers predicts an early peak in flu cases this year in Canada and the United States. It is based on a method for predicting the transmission rate of infectious diseases based on mathematics and machine learning.

The researchers analyzed data from the end of 2015 to September 2024, notably integrating weather conditions and political choices to predict how infections like the flu and COVID-19 could spread.

The team expects more than 1,600 new flu cases to be confirmed each day in U.S. labs by the end of November, nearly double the number of cases recorded last year at the same period.

Hao Wang is director of the Interdisciplinary Mathematical Ecology and Epidemiology Laboratory at the University of Alberta. He indicates that the team of researchers he is part of used American data to make its forecasts, but that the conclusions would have been similar if it had used Canadian data.

Wang says the team predicted that the first wave of flu cases this year would come a month earlier than last year. He hopes this information will be useful to public health officials.

Hao Wang says he and his colleagues have published numerous papers on their new forecasting method.

Last year, he and Xiunan Wang, an assistant professor in the mathematics department at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga, published a paper about it in the journal SIAM Journal on Applied Mathematicswhich has been peer-reviewed.

Junling Ma, a full professor in the department of mathematics and statistics at the University of Victoria, was not involved in the team’s research. He said he hasn’t studied flu patterns in recent years, but he is familiar with the forecasting model in question and thinks it could help capture key features of the flu.

I think if that happens, their model should be able to capture the feature that the rise is faster and earlier this year, and so I would trust their result at this point.

The need to prepare

Junling Ma adds that public health officials can prepare for an early flu surge by ensuring there are enough hospital beds available and encouraging people to get more flu shots. early.

According to the federal government, influenza is one of the top 10 causes of death in Canada and results in thousands of hospitalizations each year.

Last year, less than a quarter of Albertans got vaccinated against the infection and the province experienced its deadliest flu season in 15 years.

The provincial government announced Monday that flu vaccine appointments can be made starting October 15.

Health Minister Adriana LaGrange said at a news conference that the government expects a flu season very similar to last year.

Procedures and policies have been put in place to ensure we have the necessary capacity.

Health Canada says it is monitoring the situation

André Gagnon, spokesperson for the Public Health Agency of Canada, emphasizes in a press release that it is difficult to predict the behavior of the flu.

He notes that flu season typically begins in mid-November, peaks between late December and February, and ends by the end of May.

Mr. Gagnon specifies that the Public Health Agency of Canada does not use artificial intelligence in its forecasts to predict transmission rates.

There is currently no indication that flu cases are increasing sooner than expected, but the Public Health Agency of Canada will continue to monitor the situation and report weekly.

Ghada Haggag, a pharmacist in Edmonton, notes that appointments to be vaccinated against flu, COVID-19 and respiratory syncytial virus are much higher this year than in 2023.

With information from Madeleine Cummings