Banning the sale of tobacco to young people born between 2006 and 2010 could prevent nearly 1.2 million deaths from lung cancer by the end of the century, according to a study led by the lung cancer agency. WHO, IARC, and published Thursday. Smoking is the main risk factor for lung cancer, the most common and deadliest cancer in the world. If current trends continue, more than 2.95 million lung cancer deaths could occur in people born between the beginning of 2006 and the end of 2010 – a cohort of more than 650 million people – estimate the authors of the study published in The Lancet Public Health.
A “tobacco-free generation”?
But if tobacco sales were banned for this generation, nearly 1.2 million of these deaths could be avoided by 2095, according to this modeling work, one of the first to assess the impact of a “generation tobacco-free. Overall, more deaths from lung cancer are potentially avoidable in men (45.8%) than in women (30.9%), estimates the study, which covers 185 countries and is based in particular on data from mortality and cancer incidence on five continents.
A trend “probably linked to the higher prevalence and earlier onset of smoking among men”, note the researchers, also members of the universities of Santiago de Compostela (Spain), Pretoria (South Africa ), Otago (New Zealand), Ouro Preto (Brazil), the American Cancer Society and the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. But in some regions of the world, such as North America, parts of Europe, Australia and New Zealand, the proportion of deaths preventable by this tobacco-free generation may be higher among women than among men. men.
The importance of proven measures
It is among women in Western Europe (77.7%) and among men in Central and Eastern Europe (74.3%) that the percentage of preventable deaths appears highest at the regional level. Initiatives for a “tobacco-free generation” have been launched in several countries, such as New Zealand, or in various regions of Australia and the United States. In New Zealand, a pioneer for having voted in 2022 to ban the sale of cigarettes to people born after 2008, the new conservative government announced at the end of 2023 the abandonment of these measures. Conversely, in England, Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer intends to take up Conservative Rishi Sunak’s project so that today’s under-fifteens are never legally sold cigarettes.
However, a “tobacco-free generation” policy will not be enough to deal with the scourge of smoking, underline the authors of the study. To reduce it, they recall the importance of proven measures, such as increasing taxes, tobacco-free places or support for cessation.
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