Already widely recognised as a major global health challenge, AMR – which occurs when bacteria or other pathogens evolve to “evade” antimicrobials – is expected to worsen in the coming decades.
- The first “GRAM” study, published in 2022, revealed the real extent of AMR with a higher number of associated deaths than those due to HIV/AIDS or malaria.
- The new study reveals opposite trends across ages: Over the same period, AMR deaths among children under 5 years old decreased by 50%, while those among people aged 70 and over increased by more than 80%.
Deaths from AMR will increase steadily over the coming decades
and by almost 70% by 2050 compared to 2022, and will continue to have a greater impact on older people.
The studycarried out as part of the project Global Research on Antibiotic Resistance (GRAM) is the first global analysis of trends in antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Its key findings include:
- more than a million people died each year from AMR between 1990 and 2021;
- nearly 2 million people could die as a direct result of AMR in 2050, an increase of nearly 70% per year compared to 2022;
- during this same period, the number of deaths associated with AMR bacteria will increase by almost 75%, from 4.7 million in 2022 to 8.2 million in 2050;
One of the lead authors, Dr. Mohsen Naghavi, AMR research team leader at the Institute of Health Metrics (IHME) at the University of Washington, adds: “Antimicrobial drugs are one of the cornerstones of modern health care, and increasing resistance to these drugs is a major cause for concern.
AMR is a global health threat
and this has been the case for decades. Understanding its trends and how they are likely to evolve is essential to making informed decisions.”
These estimates provided for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen-drug combinations and 11 infectious diseases, in people of all ages and in 204 countries and territories are derived from the analysis of data from no fewer than 520 million patient records. Statistical modeling was used to produce estimates of deaths directly due to AMR and those in which AMR played a role.
Among the new findings of the analysis,
this major age-related change, with an unprecedented increase in deaths recorded among adults aged 70 and over;
Deaths directly due to AMR increased most in 5 world regions: Western sub-Saharan Africa, tropical Latin America, high-income North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia;
All but one key pathogen, ranked by WHO as the most difficult to treat, will cause more deaths in 2022 vs 1990, deaths related to Methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA) having increased the most globally.
The worst could still be avoided
Estimates also suggest that better access to health care and more rational use of antibiotics could save a total of 92 million lives between 2025 and 2050. Thus, the authors write, there is an urgent need to take decisive action – including access to better healthcare, prevention and …new antibiotics, to protect the world against AMR.
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