PMore than 39 million people worldwide could die directly from antibiotic-resistant infections over the next 25 years, according to a modeling study published Tuesday in The Lancet, which still considers it possible to avoid this dire scenario.
Already recognised as a major health challenge, antibiotic resistance – when bacteria or other pathogens undergo changes that prevent them from responding to antimicrobial treatments – is expected to worsen.
For the first time, this study assesses the impact of antibiotic resistance over time and attempts to estimate its evolution.
From 1990 to 2021, more than a million people per year worldwide succumbed directly to antibiotic resistance, according to its authors. They looked at 22 pathogens, 84 combinations between pathogens and treatments, 11 infectious syndromes in people of all ages, from 204 countries and territories, using data from more than 520 million people.
Over the coming decades, deaths from antibiotic resistance will continue to rise. The number of direct deaths could reach 1.91 million per year worldwide by 2050, a jump of more than 67% compared to 2021, according to the researchers’ modeling.
By the middle of this century, antibiotic resistance is expected to play a larger role in 8.22 million deaths each year, an increase of 74.5% compared to 2021.
In total, between 2025 and 2050, antibiotic resistance could directly cause more than 39 million deaths worldwide and would be associated with 169 million deaths, scientists estimate.
Less pessimistic scenarios are, however, possible. An improvement in the treatment of infections and access to antibiotics could prevent 92 million deaths worldwide between 2025 and 2050, particularly in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.
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