New study predicts major increase in global life expectancy by 2050

New study predicts major increase in global life expectancy by 2050
New study predicts major increase in global life expectancy by 2050

The 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study projects an increase in life expectancy worldwide by 2024-2050, driven by effective public health strategies and a shift in the burden of disease from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases, with a focus on reducing disparities and addressing metabolism and lifestyle. -related risks.

The most recent results from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), recently published in The Lancetpredict an increase in global life expectancy of 4.9 years for men and 4.2 years for women between 2022 and 2050.

Increases are expected to be greater in countries with lower life expectancy, contributing to a convergence of increases in life expectancy across geographies. This trend is largely driven by public health measures that have prevented and improved survival rates from cardiovascular disease, COVID-19and a range of communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional (CMNN) diseases.

This study indicates that the current shift in disease burden towards noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) – such as cardiovascular disease, cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes – and exposure to risk factors associated with NCDs – such as obesity, high blood pressure, suboptimal diet and smoking – will have the greatest impact on the disease burden of the next generation.

As the burden of disease continues to shift from CMNN to NCDs and from years of life lost (YLL) to years lived with disability (YLD), more people are expected to live longer, but with more years spent in poor health . Global life expectancy is expected to increase from 73.6 years in 2022 to 78.1 years in 2050 (an increase of 4.5 years). Global healthy life expectancy (HALE) – the average number of years a person can expect to live in good health – will increase from 64.8 years in 2022 to 67.4 years in 2050 (a increase of 2.6 years).

Methodology and results of the study

To reach these conclusions, the study provides mortality by cause; YLL; YLD; disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, or healthy life years lost due to ill health and premature death); life expectancy; and HALE from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories.

“In addition to an overall increase in life expectancy, we found that the disparity in life expectancy between geographic areas would decrease,” said Dr. Chris Murray, chair of the Department of Metrics Sciences at health at University of Washington and Director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). “It is an indicator that although health inequalities between the highest and lowest income regions persist, the gaps are narrowing, with the largest increases expected in sub-Saharan Africa. »

Dr. Murray added that the greatest opportunity to accelerate reductions in the global burden of disease lies in policy interventions aimed at preventing and mitigating behavioral and metabolic risk factors.

These findings build on findings from the 2021 GBD Risk Factor Study, also published in The Lancet. This additional study found that the total number of years lost due to poor health and early death (measured in DALYs) attributable to metabolic risk factors has increased by 50% since 2000.

The study also proposes various alternative scenarios to compare potential health outcomes if different public health interventions could eliminate exposure to several key risk factor groups by 2050.

The authors also ran two other scenarios: one focused on safer environments and the other on improving child nutrition and immunizations.

“Although the largest effects on global DALY burden were seen in the ‘Improved Behavioral and Metabolic Risk’ scenario, we also predicted reductions in disease burden from the ‘Safer Environment’ and ‘Safer Environment’ scenarios. “Improved childhood nutrition and immunizations” beyond our baseline forecasts, said Amanda E. Smith, deputy director of forecasting at IHME. “This demonstrates the need for continued progress and resources in these areas and the opportunity to accelerate progress through 2050.”

“We have an immense opportunity to influence the future of global health by getting ahead of these growing metabolic and dietary risk factors, particularly those related to behavioral and lifestyle factors like high blood sugar, body mass index high and high blood pressure. » continued Dr. Murray.



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