Andy Schooler previews what promises to be a spectacular day of tennis at the US Open on Tuesday.
Tennis betting tips: US Open matches
1pt Emma Navarro to beat Paula Badosa at 11/10 (General)
1pt Taylor Fritz v Alex Zverev over 4.5 sets at 23/10 (betway)
1pt Aryna Sabalenka beat Qinwen Zheng 2-0 at 5/6
1pt Frances Tiafoe to beat Grigor Dimitrov at 7/5 (Paddy Power)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Paula Badosa v Emma Navarro (1700 BST)
Looking at the order of play, I think Tuesday could be one of the best days of the year for tennis fans.
The bookies have three very tight matches, while the other pits the reigning Australian Open champion against the recent Olympic gold medallist. All eight players have genuinely good chances of making the semis.
This contest will be the most closely contested, according to the odds, with Badosa a marginal favourite.
After a miserable time with injuries, the former world number two has returned to what appears to be top form during this current hardcourt swing – she won in Washington and made the semis in Cincinnati before this run in New York.
The Badosa forehand has been dictating play for much of that period but whether she’ll be able to do that against Navarro’s excellent court coverage remains to be seen.
Navarro is certainly a step up for the Spaniard – her opponents’ average ranking so far has been 81, with the highest being 48, Taylor Townsend.
Navarro’s equivalent figure is 49. She ended Coco Gauff’s reign as champion in the last round and has also beaten another seed, Marta Kostyuk.
Admittedly, Badosa did win the pair’s only previous meeting but that came on the clay of Rome earlier this season. Conditions here will suit Navarro more than they did then.
Navarro did get rather nervy as she failed to close out a straight-sets win against Gauff and frankly she was grateful to Gauff’s error-strewn final set, albeit she may have won any way.
Badosa’s aggression will also lead to errors (although surely not as many double faults as Gauff delivered) and Navarro’s strong defence could hold the key here.
Badosa’s unforced error count has outnumbered her winners tally in three of the four matches so far (the other was a tie) and so if the consistent Navarro manages to get the balls back, like she did against Gauff, I can see her edging this.
Of the two, Navarro is the bet at the prices.
Taylor Fritz v Alex Zverev (not before 1800 BST)
This one looks like it could be an epic battle.
It’s been a head-to-head which was been very see-saw in nature – after Zverev won the first two, it’s swung back and forth with Zverev now 5-4 up following Fritz’s five-set victory at Wimbledon in July. Even the ace counts have fluctuated with neither man seemingly able to dominate the other.
Big serves will again be in abundance in New York where Zverev has taken a familiar, scenic route to this stage. The German has dropped a set in three of his four rounds so far, yet hasn’t really been in any serious danger.
Fritz has largely cruised through, although he didn’t look comfortable in the early stages against Casper Ruud on Sunday when he lost his first set of the tournament before the Norwegian ran out of gas – he’s not looked fully fit for a while now and so I’m not sure that victory was as impressive as the scoreline suggests.
Zverev, who was among my outright tips for this tournamentseemed confident of avenging his Wimbledon loss when he spoke to the media on Sunday, pointedly saying he “wasn’t healthy” at the time of that match, adding his movement was restricted that day.
To me, there looks little between the players and with both men more than capable of mid-match lapses, I think this one could well go the distance.
They’ve met three times previously at Grand Slam level. Two of those contests have gone to a fifth set, the other was a tie-break away from doing the same way, and 23/10 about another five-setter looks good.
Qinwen Zheng v Aryna Sabalenka (2359 BST)
I tipped Sabalenka for the title prior to the first ball being struck and I’ve been given no reason to change my mind.
Many are suggesting Zheng, fresh from her gold medal at the Olympic Games, can land the upset here at 14/5.
I wouldn’t rule it out and could make you argument to suggest that price offers some value but I don’t really see that as the case.
Zheng has been taken the distance in three of her four matches in New York, while Sabalenka has dropped just the single set.
Most worrying for the Chinese is how she’s been unable to lay a glove on Sabalenka in their two previous meetings.
The first came here, at this very stage, 12 months ago when Sabalenka won 6-1 6-4 and the second was in this year’s Australian Open final when Zheng again won just five games.
The serve stats show how Sabalenka has dominated – she’s won 86% of points behind her first serve (to Zheng’s 70%) and on second serve, it’s 55% v 45% in the Belarusian’s favour. Zheng is yet to break Sabalenka’s serve with the power of the world number two troubling her, particularly on the serve-plus-one shot.
Zheng has been banging down the aces this past week or so and will need to serve well again to stand any chance but I fear for her when her first serve doesn’t find the target.
The second deal remains a weakness for me and I’m expecting Sabalenka to win this in straight sets.
Grigor Dimitrov v Frances Tiafoe (to follow)
Of all the prices, it was Tiafoe’s which stood out at first glance – I thought he might have been the slight favourite for this one.
Instead, the home hope is a 7/5 shot and I feel that’s worth backing.
Again, ante-post followers don’t really need to get involved here – we’ve got Tiafoe to win his quarter at 8/1 and he’ll land that if he wins this match.
But in the here and now, Tiafoe looks worth siding with.
As predicted, he’s been enjoying the crowd energy in New York and he’s sure to have huge support again for this contest.
That should help on the fatigue front – he’s needed five sets to beat Ben Shelton and four to see off Alexei Popyrin in the last two rounds – but Dimitrov also has tennis in his legs following a five-setter with Andrey Rublev on Sunday.
Dimitrov led that one by two sets to love which is a nod to the problem with backing the Bulgarian.
He’s capable of some big slumps and too often at the Slams he’s delivered a miserable performance when it’s not really been expected.
Perhaps the pressure is off a little here but then again the draw has opened up with the early defeats of Calros Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic – is this his one last big chance to reach a maiden Grand Slam final?
He’ll also know that the head-to-head is in his favour. Dimitrov leads 3-1, although on outdoor hardcourts it’s all square at 1-1.
Personally, I’m not reading much into that. They’ve played just once since 2019 and that was on the grass of Wimbledon last season when Dimitrov won easily, although that’s hardly a surprise given the surface.
Essentially, Dimitrov isn’t a player I trust to deliver as a market favourite and I do like Tiafoe’s chances here.
Posted at 2120 BST on 02/09/24
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