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Monday, September 2 at 8:00 p.m. au
Tuesday September 3 at 11:00 p.m.
Situation
In an unstable context with a cold drop positioned over the Bay of Biscay, France is at the heart of a conflict of air masses, between the warm air rising on the eastern coast and the cooler air descending via the Channel to the northwest.
Between the two, France is therefore located at the heart of a conflict of air masses, conducive to the development of sometimes strong storms.
Rainy and sometimes strong storms will initially appear in the southwest, near the Pyrenees, during the night from Monday to Tuesday and in the morning of Tuesday. A risk of strong phenomena cannot be ruled out, with accumulations expected of up to 40 to 50 mm, or even very locally more on the relief.
During the day on Tuesday, thunderstorms will reactivate in the warm air in the east, between Auvergne and the Grand Est with significant rain intensities expected. A risk of gusts exceeding 80 km/h as well as strong electrical activity is established.
In the late evening and night from Tuesday to Wednesday, other very rainy storms are likely to move up the Mediterranean to the departments of the PACA region.
Observation
Since the end of the afternoon, storms have been breaking out in the south-east of France (Corsica and the Côte d’Azur). Those affecting the south-west in the coming hours were already present in the Bay of Biscay, gradually affecting the coast of Landes and Gironde. This was the start of the deterioration.
At the same time, storms from Spain began to cross the Pyrenees from 6:00 p.m. These storms then joined up with those from the Bay of Biscay during the night.
Evolution
Rainy and sometimes strong storms will initially appear in the southwest, near the Pyrenees, during the night from Monday to Tuesday and in the morning of Tuesday. A risk of strong phenomena cannot be ruled out, with accumulations expected of up to 40 to 50 mm, or even very locally more on the relief.
Tonight
The highest rainfall and storm intensity occurs from the Hautes-Pyrénées to the Gers, between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. Caution is particularly important in the mountains. Overall, it is the departments located south of the Garonne that are affected by the passage of this disturbance.
This Tuesday morning
Storms are still to be found south of the Garonne. The night’s totals having given 30 to 50 mm of rain, we can expect risks of local flooding with 50 to 70 mm punctually. In the Pyrenees, be careful of the hydrological reaction of the Gaves, torrents and waterfalls.
The rain and storm disturbance is slowly shifting between the Pyrenees and the south of the Massif Central, losing intensity.
However, during the day of this Tuesday, the storms are reactivated in the warm air in the east, between Auvergne and the Grand Est with significant rain intensities expected. A risk of hail, gusts greater than 80 km/h as well as strong electrical activity is established.
In the late evening and night from Tuesday to Wednesday, other very rainy storms are likely to rise from the Mediterranean to the departments of the PACA region. In this configuration, our special press release will be likely to change in the coming hours.
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