Tennis betting tips: US Open matches
1pt Alex Zverev to beat Brandon Nakashima & both players to win a set at 11/8 (BoyleSports)
1pt over 12.5 games in the first set of Nakashima v Zverev at 11/4 (bet365)
2pts Alex Zverev (-5.5) to win the aces handicap at 5/6 (bet365)
1pt Emma Navarro to beat Coco Gauff at 19/10 (Betway)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Brandon Nakashima v Alex Zverev
Novak Djokovic’s shock defeat has left our outright pick Zverev in pole position to make the final from the bottom half of the draw.
However, on Sunday he’ll need to fend off what could well be a tough challenge posed by the in-form Nakashima.
The American has enjoyed a strong hardcourt season and looks capable of causing a problem or two.
Zverev’s tendency to let his level dip a bit at times has been shown again in New York with two of his three matches so far seeing him lose a set.
The good thing for the German is that he has proved a difficult opponent for Nakashima in the past, winning both meetings. He triumphed in straight sets at Roland Garros in 2022 and needed four to win here in 2020.
The notable trend from the match-up has been how hard Nakashima has found it to break serve – he managed to do so only once in those seven sets.
I expect this to be a serve-dominated match, with Nakashima having held his own deal throughout seven of his last 13 matches, including two so far this week.
Tie-breaks could well be the order of the day – three of their previous seven sets have gone the distance – with one in the first set looking tempting at 11/4, while over 1.5 in the match at 3/1 is also worthy of consideration.
Another serve-related bet I like is for Zverev to win the ace handicap, giving up a 5.5 start.
He’s won 18-8 (2022) and 24-5 (2020) so far in their head-to-head and has managed 48 in three matches so far.
Admittedly, Nakashima has also hit double figures in each of his matches in New York but not too many get a lot of aces past the 6ft 6in Zverev, whose reach should help him with this bet.
Overall, I’d expect Zverev to come through this but doing so while dropping another set looks more than possible. That’s an 11/8 shot.
That’s been the outcome in two of his three matches so far and was in four of the six at this year’s other hardcourt Slam in Australia.
With Nakashima playing well, I feel he can grab a set here in a losing effort.
Emma Navarro vs Coco Gauff
We opposed Gauff in the last round and all looked to be going swimmingly as Elina Svitolina did exactly what had been expected, frustrating the defending champion with her impressive defence.
That was until she got to 6-3 3-3 up at which point it all went rapidly downhill.
Hopefully some of you managed to lock in a profit mid-match but whether that happened or not, there looks another chance to take on Gauff here.
Navarro was a deserved winner – in straight sets – when these two met at Wimbledon and won’t be cowed by facing her compatriot.
The 23-year-old has enjoyed a great season to climb into the world’s top 15 with another notable victory coming against Aryna Sabalenka in Indian Wells.
Unlike Svitolina, she won’t try to beat Gauff with her defensive game; she’ll be on the attack and look to get the 2023 champion on the back foot.
Like Gauff, she’s only lost the one set so far and has played well on a surface which suits her game.
19/10 about the upset is good enough to tempt me in.
Posted at 0750 BST on 01/09/24
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