More than a month ago, the war in Ukraine took another turn when kyiv launched its incursion into the Kursk region of Russia. But Moscow is currently waging a counteroffensive; will it be able to reclaim this area occupied by the enemy?
On August 6, Volodymyr Zelensky’s men entered Russia, in the border region of Kursk. This is the first invasion of Russian territory since the Second World War. As the climate becomes increasingly tense between the West and Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin responded to this attack by launching a counter-offensive.
A response planned by Ukraine?
In early August, the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Oblast surprised Russia, which was not expecting it. Volodymyr Zelensky’s men quickly advanced into enemy territory and took control of several localities. After two and a half years of war and suffering multiple Russian assaults, this maneuver carried out on Putin’s lands has boosted the morale of the Ukrainian people.
But on Thursday, the situation changed. Volodymyr Zelensky said the Russian military had launched a counteroffensive in Russia’s border region of Kursk, where kyiv’s forces have seized more than 1,000 square kilometers since they began their assault in August. “The Russians have launched counter-offensive actions”said the Ukrainian president, assuring that this response by Moscow’s forces “is consistent with the Ukrainian plan”without providing further details.
Uncertainty
The question now is: will Russia be able to dislodge the Ukrainian army that is currently occupying part of the Kursk region? This incursion into the Kursk region is not simply a show of force by kyiv; Ukraine hopes to have a “precious lever” for the next country negotiations between the two countries in conflict, indicates The Kyiv Independant.
But the Russian counteroffensive does not seem to bode well for specialists. “In order to continue supplying the area, the Russians were forced to deploy temporary bridges, which were also the target of Ukrainian strikes. This problem is being resolved with the current counterattack.”says Emil Kastehelmi, an OSINT analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group and an expert in military history.
“The Kursk counterattack is unlikely to change the overall situation in Ukraine’s favor in other regions, but it is possible that some regions will experience less pressure for a while. However, the effect is likely to be rather local. The Ukrainians may try to advance in some areas, but the advances will probably be gradual rather than rapid.”added the expert.
While the future of the Kursk region remains uncertain, Vladimir Putin fears that the West will allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles on his country. “If this decision is taken, it would mean nothing less than direct involvement of NATO countries in the war in Ukraine. This would change the very nature of the conflict. It would mean that NATO countries are at war with Russia.”the Russian president threatened.
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