The Aurora Borealis of May 10, 2024, visible almost everywhere on Earth, left its mark. That evening, geomagnetic activity reached class G4. However, recent NOAA forecasts for the night of October 10 to 11, 2024 predict comparable or even stronger activity. The British Metoffice is a little more conservative and is counting on an intensity of G2 to G3, or even G4.
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“I don’t think we expected the aurora to reach France,” says Stephen Dixon of the Metoffice. But there is still some uncertainty about the exact timing and strength of the phenomenon, as shown by the various space weather forecast centers! »
Aurora alert in the north of France
In any case, even if the aurora is vertically above the British islands and not France, the top of the phenomenon is in principle visible to people located in the north of France. Activity will be maximum in the first part of the night and in the middle of the night. Despite this, it is interesting to monitor throughout the night because the phenomenon retains a large degree of unpredictability.
This aurora borealis follows the class X1.8 solar flare that occurred on October 9, 2024. The animation below shows the coronal mass ejection following this flare.
This is only the second time that such intensity has been reached since 2005. The previous time dates back to the famous May 10, 2024. We therefore have a reasonable probability of observing an aurora borealis from France. To give yourself maximum luck, it is advisable to choose a perfectly clear site in the north and move away from city lights.
With the naked eye and in photos
Having a camera is a plus. In general, the northern lights seen at our latitudes are red. However, our eye is not very sensitive to this color at night. The aurora must therefore reach a certain intensity to be perceived visually, or better yet, green auroras which are much easier to observe appear. On the other hand, the camera will be able to capture these red nuances without difficulty, even on the horizon with an exposure time of 5 to 10 s.
At dusk you can even look for comet Tsuchinshan-Atlas towards the west, but it is especially from October 11, 2024 and even more so on the 12th that it will become clearly visible at the very beginning of the night.
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