Muchova snaps Sabalenka’s winning streak to reach Beijing semifinals

Karolina Muchova ended No.1 seed Aryna Sabalenka’s 15-match winning streak in a China Open quarterfinal thriller, saving two set points in the first set and coming from 4-2 down in the third to advance 7-6(5), 2-6, 6-4 in 2 hours and 46 minutes.

Beijing: Scores | Order of Play | Draws

Reigning Australian Open and US Open champion Sabalenka had not lost a match since the Toronto quarterfinals at the start of August, where she fell to eventual runner-up Amanda Anisimova. However, Muchova has now defeated the World No.2 three times in a row following her victories in the semifinals of Roland Garros and Cincinnati last year. Sabalenka’s sole win in the series came in the 2019 Zhuhai semifinals.

Muchova is playing just the seventh tournament of her comeback from wrist surgery. She has now reached at least the semifinals in three of those, having also been runner-up in Palermo in July before making the fourth Grand Slam semifinal of her career at the US Open.

The win puts Muchova into her sixth semifinal at WTA 1000 level or above. She will next face either No.5 seed Zheng Qinwen or No.17 seed Mirra Andreeva.

Rollercoaster rivalry: In her on-court interview, Muchova laughed as she told the crowd, “Tennis is a rollercoaster.”

That’s typified her rivalry with Sabalenka so far. Each of her wins have been tight three-setters. At Roland Garros, she saved a match point as she came back from 5-2 down in the third set; in Cincinnati, she came from a set down.

In the context of the Czech’s comeback, though emerging on top of a three-set tussle was much needed. This result was just her second three-set victory of 2024, following her 6-7(0), 6-2, 6-3 win over Noma Noga Akugue in the Palermo second round. Since then, she’d lost four straight deciding sets — to Zheng in the Palermo final, to Leylah Fernandez in the Paris Olympic Games first round, and to Jessica Pegula in Cincinnati and at the US Open.

Shotmaking feast: The tone for a superb contest was set in the opening game — a three-deuce tussle in which seven out of 12 points were decided by clean winners, including a brilliant cat-and-mouse exchange won by Muchova and a delightful drop shot from Sabalenka.

Indeed, the drop shot would prove a key component of Sabalenka’s artillery, belying the power-against-finesse dynamic that might have previously characterized their rivalry. The World No.2 held that first game and repeatedly caught Muchova out with unexpected touch.

But at 5-4, Sabalenka could not take advantage of two double faults from Muchova, missing two set points in that game. No.49-ranked Muchova found some of her best net play in the ensuing tiebreak to steal the set.

For the next set-and-a-half, Sabalenka seized control with her sheer first-strike power. Muchova had been the more aggressive player in the first set, tallying both more winners (18 to 15) and more unforced errors (15 to eight) than Sabalenka. The former World No.1 flipped that in the second, firing 13 winners — including five off the return — to Muchova’s eight.

For much of the third set, Sabalenka maintained her level to keep her nose in front. Though she was pegged back from 2-0 to 2-2, a spectacular passing shot paved the way to another break and a 4-2 lead.

But Muchova showed grit to keep clinging on, and that paid off as unforced errors crept back into Sabalenka’s game. Muchova converted her fourth break point to level at 4-4, and rolled to the finishing line from there by reeling off the last 10 points of the match.

Muchova on the challenge Sabalenka poses: “Very touch match — basically what I expected. She’s one of the best players playing her best tennis these days. You really have to be ready to attack, because if you slice slow ball or something she’s really going to smash you.

“Second set I fell a little short. I felt a little down and she was just smashing it. I just tried to get through the second set, tried to regroup. Third set, I was just trying to fight for every ball. We’ve had some close battles, so I was trying to put every ball over the net and it was worth it in the end.”

“I played her twice last year, and it’s definitely been a year of improvement. She drop shots, she’s better at net. There were some great shots she played. I think she’s moving better. I could see that she improved, and I was just trying to keep up. But I think I improved as well. Somehow I was feeling pretty good on court. Of course, I still need to work on my fitness — I didn’t have much time to work on it this year.”